Market Overview for ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• ETHFIUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of 1.074–1.121, with a modest close near 1.075.
• Price experienced a sharp 2.7% drop in the final 15-minute candle, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the 17:15–17:30 ET window, confirming the initial upward thrust before a reversal.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term rebounds.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 1.118, aligning with a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The ETHFIUSDT pair opened at 1.087 on 2025-10-19 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.121 before settling at 1.075 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-20. Total 24-hour volume was 3,646,089.6 units, with notional turnover amounting to 766,812.2 USD. A bearish trend emerged in the final hours, marked by a sharp reversal from 1.118 to 1.080 in just 45 minutes, which appears to signal a short-term breakdown in buyers’ control.

Structure and candlestick formations indicate a key resistance level around 1.105–1.118, where a failed bullish thrust turned into a bearish engulfing pattern. The 1.08–1.085 level now appears to be the immediate support. A long-legged doji formed at 1.092, suggesting indecision, followed by a bearish harami near 1.102, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation in the downward trend.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, a bearish signal. RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory, which may hint at a potential bounce, but without a strong follow-through, the trend could remain bearish. MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram turned negative. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 17:15–18:00 ET window, confirming the breakout attempt and the subsequent reversal.

Volume spiked during the 17:15 ET candle with a high of 1.121 and again during the bearish reversal phase. Notional turnover also surged, aligning with price action, indicating no divergence. The price has settled near the 1.074–1.075 level, which is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward swing from 1.084 to 1.121. This level appears to be a critical psychological and technical floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the viability of short-term bearish signals, a backtest strategy would need to define the exit rule for shorts triggered by bearish engulfing patterns. One potential approach is to close each short position at the close of the candle that forms the first bullish confirmation pattern (e.g., a bullish engulfing or a hammer). Alternatively, fixed stop-loss and take-profit levels could be applied, such as a 1.5% stop-loss and a 2% target. If a fixed holding period is preferred, covering after 24 hours may be appropriate given the fast-moving nature of this pair. Including a max drawdown of 5% would add a risk control layer, ensuring the strategy does not expose capital to large adverse moves. This approach would align with the observed volatility and reversal tendencies in the 15-minute chart.