Market Overview for Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) – 2025-10-12

• ETHFIUSDT traded in a bearish trend today, breaking key support levels and reaching a 24-hour low of 1.103
• Volume surged during the late-night dip, but failed to confirm a strong bounce
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with prices testing lower Fibonacci retracement levels
• Bollinger Bands contracted during the early morning before expanding with a sharp decline
• Divergence between price and turnover suggests uncertain sentiment ahead

Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 1.180 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.111 as of 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded as high as 1.202 and as low as 1.103 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume reached approximately 11.53 million units, with notional turnover amounting to $13.22 million. A sharp bearish breakdown emerged during the overnight session, with bears dominating the price action from 2:00 AM to 6:00 AM.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern showed a prolonged bearish dominance with a key breakdown candle forming at 4:00 AM, where the price gapped down from 1.115 to close at 1.103. This long-bodied bear candle confirmed a breach of the 1.115 support level, which had previously served as a minor floor. A doji formed at 6:45 AM near 1.108, signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. The price found temporary support at 1.105, but it failed to close above 1.110 for most of the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below key support levels, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50EMA crossed the 200EMA on the daily chart, marking a bearish crossover. Prices remain below both the 50 and 200 daily moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line during the overnight decline, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI reached oversold territory at 26.3, which may suggest short-term support is near. However, this has not yet translated into a reversal, and prices appear to be testing lower Fibonacci retracement levels. The RSI divergence is a mixed signal — while it shows oversold conditions, it has not produced a clear bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly between 2:00 AM and 4:00 AM, signaling a potential breakout. The sharp bearish move after the consolidation broke the lower band decisively, indicating increased volatility and bearish sentiment. The price currently sits near the lower band again, suggesting it may be testing the next level of support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight decline, particularly between 3:00 AM and 5:00 AM, with large-volume bearish candles confirming the breakdown. Notional turnover also surged during this period, though it has since cooled off. The divergence between price and turnover during the early morning suggests that sellers are running out of steam or buyers are selectively accumulating at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 1.180 to 1.103, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels correspond to 1.142 and 1.122, respectively. The price briefly touched the 1.122 level but failed to hold above it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger bear wave lies at 1.100, which could be the next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed behavior of the 15-minute chart, a potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20SMA and 50SMA crossover on the 15-minute timeframe to identify directional bias, while using a fixed stop-loss and take-profit at Fibonacci levels (61.8% and 38.2%). This would allow for capturing sharp, intraday moves in a highly liquid and volatile pair like ETHFIUSDT. A long entry could be considered at 1.110 with a stop at 1.105 and a target at 1.125, while a short trade could aim for 1.100 with a stop above 1.107.

Looking ahead, ETHFIUSDT may test the 1.100 level for confirmation of a deeper bearish move, but a rebound above 1.120 could suggest a potential reversal. Investors should remain cautious as divergence and low turnover suggest a possible reversal or consolidation ahead. Risk remains to the downside, especially if bears manage to break the 1.100 level.