Market Overview for ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• ETHFIUSDT opened at 1.616 and traded between 1.530 and 1.640, closing at 1.526 near the 24-hour low.
• Price action shows sharp selloffs in the latter half of the day, with a bearish divergence in volume and momentum.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, while RSI hit oversold levels near 25, signaling potential short-term reversal.
• Key support appears at 1.521–1.530, with resistance retesting expected near 1.55–1.56 in the near term.
• High turnover spikes during the 15:45–16:00 ET window indicate significant institutional or retail activity.

Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 1.616 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.526 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.640 and a low of 1.530. The 24-hour trading volume totaled 14,705,791.8 with a notional turnover of approximately $22.9M, based on cumulative volume and price levels.

Structure & Formations: The price formed a bearish trend, with a clear breakdown below key psychological levels and a strong engulfing pattern at the end of the day. A long bearish candle around 15:45 ET (1.531 open, 1.526 close) confirmed bearish momentum. Notable support levels formed around 1.521–1.530 and 1.511–1.521, while 1.543–1.557 acted as resistance during the earlier selloff. A doji at 06:00 ET may indicate indecision in buyers, but it was quickly invalidated by follow-through selling.

Moving Averages: On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed bearishly, reinforcing downward momentum. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, signaling a bearish alignment across multiple timeframes.

MACD & RSI: The MACD line turned negative and diverged from a prior bullish peak, with the signal line crossing below it, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 25, a strong oversold reading, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, the absence of volume confirmation with the RSI dip weakens the case for an immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands: Volatility expanded significantly in the latter half of the day, with the bands widening to 0.015–0.020 range. Price traded near the lower band at multiple points, reinforcing oversold conditions. A bounce off the lower band may provide near-term support, but the trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover: Trading volume spiked around 15:45–16:00 ET (4.4M traded) and 04:45–05:00 ET (2.6M), aligning with key price breakdowns. Notional turnover increased during these periods, confirming selling pressure. However, volume decreased as the price approached the 1.520–1.530 zone, indicating a potential short-term pause in bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements: The 1.530–1.640 move saw a 61.8% retracement near 1.578, which failed as resistance. A 38.2% retracement at 1.589 also held briefly. On the shorter timeframes, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.557–1.606 rally (to ~1.574) failed, indicating continued bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis: The backtesting strategy described focuses on shorting ether.fi/Tether when RSI dips below 30, volume spikes by at least 50% above average, and price breaks below the 20-period SMA on a 15-minute chart. Stops would be placed 1.5% above the entry, with targets at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels of the most recent rally. Given today's conditions—RSI at 25, a 4.4M volume spike, and a break below the 20-period SMA—the strategy would have triggered a short signal. However, the lack of a strong follow-through in volume and a potential bounce off the lower Bollinger Band suggest that this setup may be more volatile than directional, warranting caution in execution and a tight stop.