Market Overview for ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) as of 2025-10-03

• Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT) surged over 15% in 24 hours, breaking above 1.75 to a high of 1.799 before retreating to 1.778.
• Strong momentum seen in early hours, but RSI overbought and divergence appears in late session.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly from 1.71 to 1.79.
• Volume spiked during 18:15–19:30 ET, confirming bullish breakouts but diverging in final 4 hours.
• 1.75–1.775 appears key support/resistance cluster with bearish engulfing and bullish reversal patterns forming.

The ether.fi/Tether pair (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 1.527 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 1.799 before closing at 1.778 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total trading volume reached 23.5 million USDT, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 41.9 million USDT. Price action revealed both bullish and bearish signals, setting up a key test for near-term direction.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern during the 18:15–18:30 ET session, confirming a break above 1.75. However, a bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 00:00–00:15 ET session, signaling potential exhaustion. A long-legged doji at 04:45 ET and a hanging man at 14:15 ET suggest indecision and potential bearish reversal. Key support levels appear at 1.75–1.765 and 1.725–1.735, while resistance clusters are at 1.785–1.795 and 1.80–1.815.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA by late afternoon, confirming bullish momentum. However, a pullback in the early morning ET brought the 20-EMA down to 1.772 and the 50-EMA to 1.766, suggesting a possible retest of the 1.75–1.775 zone. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA appear to be converging between 1.74 and 1.76, forming a key confluence of support.

MACD & RSI

MACD (12,26,9) crossed above zero during the 18:00–18:30 ET session, with bullish divergence visible in the early morning. RSI surged to 68–70 during the peak rally, indicating overbought conditions, and later dropped to 55–60, suggesting a potential near-term consolidation. The RSI divergence in the final 4 hours raises caution about a bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly from 1.71 to 1.79 as volatility increased. Price traded between the upper band (1.79–1.80) and the lower band (1.72–1.73) for most of the session, confirming a rangebound environment punctuated by breakout attempts. The current price of 1.778 resides in the middle of the bands, suggesting balanced near-term pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 3.4 million USDT during the 18:15–18:30 ET session, confirming the bullish breakout above 1.75. However, volume declined to 200k–250k USDT in the final 4 hours, suggesting a potential exhaustion of buyers. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, though the last 3–4 hours show a slight divergence in volume/turnover ratio, raising concerns about liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 1.527 low to the 1.799 high show 1.782 (61.8%) as a key retracement level currently being tested. A break below 1.765 (38.2%) may signal deeper correction into 1.727 (61.8% of the retracement from 1.799 to 1.75). On the daily chart, the 1.76–1.77 level corresponds to the 50% retracement of the prior 1.65–1.799 move and is forming a possible pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation above the 20-EMA, and exiting when RSI exceeds 70 or a bearish engulfing pattern forms. Using today’s data, this approach would have captured the 18:15–18:30 ET breakout and held through to 00:00 ET before exiting on RSI overbought and bearish divergence. This strategy may work best in high volatility, range-bound environments but requires caution on divergence signals for tighter risk control.