Market Overview: Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) - Volatility and Breakdown on 24-Hour Timeframe

• Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) fell from 1.0008 to 0.9997 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and declining volume.
• A late-night breakdown below 1.0006 and a morning consolidation phase suggest weakening bulls and key support near 0.9995.
• MACD and RSI indicate overbought conditions turned bearish, with volume confirming downward pressure in early hours.
• Volatility expanded during the breakdown, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price approached the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.9995 and 0.9992 could act as potential short-term pivots for near-term direction.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 1.0008 on September 24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9997 on September 25 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.0008 and a low of 0.999, with total volume of 498,127,493.0 and notional turnover amounting to 498,127,493.0 (based on volume and price). The pair showed a bearish bias throughout the day, with a breakdown confirmed below key support levels.

The price action over the 24-hour period featured a sharp decline starting after 00:30 ET, when USDEUSDT broke below 1.0005 and moved into a downtrend. The bearish momentum accelerated overnight, with a series of lower closes and a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at 00:30–00:45 ET. Notable support levels were identified at 1.0006 and 0.9995, with the latter holding briefly before a further decline. The price has now settled near 0.9997, indicating a potential consolidation phase ahead.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained above price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs remained aligned with the descending price, suggesting further pressure if the current support at 0.9997 fails. MACD showed bearish crossover with a negative histogram, while the RSI crossed below 50 to confirm the weakening bullish momentum. Overbought conditions were not observed, but oversold territory may trigger a temporary bounce in the coming hours.

Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved lower, with the price settling near the lower band by midday. This suggests high volatility and a potential retest of the lower band at 0.9990–0.9992. The volatility contraction observed during the afternoon of September 24 may have set the stage for the breakdown, as lower volume was followed by a sharp price drop after 00:30 ET. Volume and turnover spiked during the critical breakdown phase, confirming the move and validating the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish breakdown at 00:30 ET, confirmed by the engulfing pattern and supported by MACD and RSI divergence, aligns well with a backtesting strategy that triggers a sell signal on a candlestick breakdown below key moving averages and a confirmed engulfing pattern. This would typically involve a stop-loss placed slightly above 1.0006 and a target near 0.9990–0.9992. Given the alignment with Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band dynamics, a backtested system could use these levels to refine entry and exit points, improving trade efficiency during periods of heightened volatility.