Market Overview for Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price fluctuated narrowly between 1.0007 and 1.0009 over 24 hours with no clear directional bias.
• Volume surged at key inflection points, particularly in the early morning ET, hinting at accumulation or distribution.
• RSI remains in neutral territory, suggesting limited momentum and no overbought or oversold conditions.
• Volatility remained low throughout the period, with price staying within tight Bollinger Band boundaries.
• A potential bearish engulfing pattern appeared near the 24-hour high, raising near-term caution.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 1.0008 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, traded between 1.0007 and 1.0009, and closed at 1.0008 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume for the period was 2.49 million, with turnover reaching $2.49 million. Price action remained range-bound, with no breakout above or below key levels.

Key support and resistance levels appeared within the 1.0007–1.0009 range, with price testing 1.0007 multiple times throughout the session. Notable candlestick formations included a bearish engulfing pattern around the 24-hour high, which may signal short-term distribution or caution. A doji appeared near 1.0007, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving averages (20 and 50-period on the 15-minute chart) remained closely aligned, reinforcing the lack of directional bias. The 50-period daily line provided a firm baseline for support. MACD showed no clear momentum shift, with the histogram flat and the line hovering near zero. RSI remained around 50–55, confirming the absence of overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands remained narrow, suggesting low volatility, with price staying near the midline.

Volume spiked in several 15-minute windows, most notably between 01:45 ET and 02:30 ET, where it exceeded 200k. These volume surges coincided with price testing the 1.0007 level. A divergence between price and volume was noted during a minor rally near 06:30 ET, as price reached a new high but volume failed to confirm the move.

Fibonacci retracements were applied to recent 15-minute swings and daily moves. The 38.2% level (around 1.0008) provided temporary support, while the 61.8% level (near 1.0009) acted as a minor resistance. A breakdown below 1.0007 could trigger a test of the next lower level at 1.0006.

Price appears to be consolidating within a tight range, with neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum. While the bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the range could signal a short-term reversal, the lack of clear volume confirmation and neutral RSI readings suggest further consolidation is likely. Traders should monitor the 1.0007 level as key support; a break below could increase bearish bias. However, range-bound conditions pose low volatility risks, and sharp moves remain unlikely in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy involves entering short positions upon the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern near key resistance levels, with a stop-loss above the recent high and a target at the nearest Fibonacci retracement (38.2%). The strategy also requires a confirmation candle closing below the pattern’s low. Given the current technical environment, the strategy could be backtested on the 15-minute chart using the 2025-09-17–2025-09-18 dataset. The engulfing pattern at 1.0009 could serve as a test case, as it was accompanied by above-average volume. The absence of a strong trend and low volatility may challenge the strategy’s effectiveness, but the pattern’s clear bearish signal and tight retracement levels make it a viable candidate for further analysis.