Market Overview: Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) on 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price fluctuated within a narrow range, showing consolidation and lack of directional bias.
• Volume increased in the second half of the day, suggesting potential breakout or reversal interest.
• RSI near neutral, no clear overbought/oversold signals, while MACD remains flat.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9992 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.9994, and closed at 0.9992 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The 24-hour volume was 20,694,167.0, with a total notional turnover of $20,641,994.36.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart remained tightly range-bound, with a narrow high-low spread of 0.0002 over most of the 24-hour period. A minor bullish break above 0.9993 in the early hours of 2025-11-07 occurred but failed to hold, reverting to consolidation. A few small doji and spinning top patterns emerged near the high of 0.9994, suggesting indecision among traders. A potential support zone appears to be forming around 0.9992, with several candles closing at this level.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained tightly clustered around price, indicating no clear bias. The 200-period daily MA is also near the current price, reinforcing the range-bound nature of the market.

MACD & RSI

MACD for the 15-minute chart has remained near zero, with no significant divergence. RSI has oscillated between 48 and 54, suggesting a neutral momentum environment. While neither overbought nor oversold conditions are present, the lack of clear momentum suggests a continuation of range trading.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a slight contraction during the early hours of 2025-11-06, followed by a modest expansion during the morning of 2025-11-07. Price has spent most of the period within the central third of the bands, suggesting low volatility and a high likelihood of continued consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low in the early hours but surged past 2 million in the evening of 2025-11-06 and continued into the next day. This increase in volume was not matched by a significant price move, indicating possible accumulation or distribution at current levels. A divergence is forming between rising volume and flat price, suggesting a potential breakout could be imminent.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a recent swing high of 0.9994 and low of 0.9992 define a 0.0002 range. The 61.8% retracement level is at 0.9993, where price spent most of the day. The daily chart shows a broader range, but the key 50% and 61.8% levels align closely with current price levels, offering potential resistance and support.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the predictive power of Doji Star patterns on Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT), we could conduct a backtest using daily close prices over a three-year period (2022-01-01 to 2025-11-07). The impact could be measured by tracking returns for +1, +5, and +20 days after each Doji Star pattern. Additionally, a notional trade could be opened on the next day’s open and closed after N days or upon hitting a stop-loss or take-profit target. The results would help determine if these patterns can be used as reliable reversal indicators in this stablecoin pair.