Market Overview for Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price remained tightly range-bound between 0.9992 and 0.9995, showing no directional bias.
• High volatility persisted in the afternoon, with volume peaking at 13.3 million units.
• MACD and RSI remain neutral, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, indicating growing uncertainty in price direction.
• Turnover increased during the early hours but diverged from price consolidation, suggesting indecision.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9992 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.9995, and closed at 0.9992 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The price traded within a narrow band with a 24-hour total volume of 129,256,827 units and an estimated notional turnover of $129,183.

Over the past 24 hours, price action has shown signs of consolidation with no clear breakout attempt. Key support levels appear to hold around 0.9992, while resistance is forming near 0.9994–0.9995. A few bearish and bullish engulfing patterns were observed during the early morning hours, but they failed to result in meaningful directional moves.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price hovering near the 20-period and 50-period lines, indicating a lack of strong momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) suggest the pair is in a tight equilibrium, with no clear trend forming. MACD lines have flattened, suggesting fading momentum, while RSI remains between 50–55, signaling a neutral market.

Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility expansion, with the price currently trading near the middle band. This suggests traders are watching for a breakout rather than engaging in aggressive directional bets. Volume and turnover spiked during the 18:30–19:30 ET timeframe but failed to confirm a breakout from the 0.9992–0.9995 range.

Fibonacci retracements indicate potential levels of interest for both buyers and sellers. The 61.8% retracement level of the recent swing from 0.9992 to 0.9995 sits at 0.9993, where the price has stalled multiple times. If a breakout occurs from this range, the next support is at 0.9991, and resistance is at 0.9995–0.9996.

The market may remain range-bound for the next 24 hours, but a break above 0.9995 or below 0.9991 could signal a shift in sentiment. Investors should remain cautious, as volume divergence and lack of directional follow-through may suggest false breakouts or a continuation of consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves using RSI as a trigger for short-term trades with a 1-day holding period. Based on today’s RSI neutrality and the absence of overbought or oversold readings, there were no clear buy or sell signals generated from the RSI alone. However, the RSI could serve as a supplemental tool if used in conjunction with candlestick patterns or breakouts. For example, a long position could be triggered on a confirmed breakout above 0.9995 if RSI rises above 55, while a short entry could be considered if price breaks below 0.9991 with RSI falling below 45. The challenge lies in filtering out false signals in such a tight range without a strong directional trend.