Market Overview for Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) - 2025-11-03

Summary
• Price action remained compressed within a narrow range of 0.9992–0.9994 over the 24-hour period.
• Volume surged after midnight ET, peaking with over 7 million contracts at 00:00 ET.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged, with most candles closing near lows or closes.
• Momentum remained subdued with no clear breakout attempts or overbought/oversold signals.
• Volatility was consistent, with price hovering around key support/resistance levels.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9993 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.9994 and a low of 0.9992 before closing at 0.9994 at 12:00 ET the following day. The total 24-hour volume was approximately 118.3 million contracts, with a notional turnover of ~$118.3 million at mid-range prices. Price action remained tightly constrained, lacking a decisive directional bias.

Structure & Formations

Price oscillated between two well-defined levels: 0.9992 as support and 0.9994 as resistance, with no candle breaking above or below. Doji and spinning top patterns were common, suggesting indecision among traders. A key consolidation pattern emerged overnight, with several candles closing near the upper boundary of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs remained closely aligned near 0.9993, indicating a sideways trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA was positioned slightly above the 100-period SMA, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias if a breakout occurs, though this is yet to manifest.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained flat around the zero line, with no clear divergence from the price action. RSI hovered in the mid-40–50 range, suggesting neutrality with no overbought or oversold conditions. The lack of momentum is reflected in the muted MACD histogram and a nearly horizontal RSI line.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were moderately contracted overnight, indicating low volatility. Price action remained near the upper band most of the time, with several touches but no breakouts. A potential expansion is expected if either support or resistance is convincingly breached in the near future.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was minimal before midnight ET, but surged sharply after 00:00 ET, with the largest single 15-minute candle (at 00:00 ET) showing a volume spike of 7.9 million contracts. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, with the highest notional turnover occurring during the same period. There was no notable price-volume divergence, as higher volume was accompanied by minor price fluctuations.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to recent 15-minute swings, 0.9993 aligns with the 50% retracement level, while 0.9992 and 0.9994 correspond to 38.2% and 61.8% levels, respectively. Price action has tested these levels multiple times without breaking through, indicating strong consolidation. On a daily basis, retracement levels are less relevant due to minimal movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the tight consolidation and lack of directional momentum, a backtesting strategy could focus on breakout setups from the defined range. A long bias would trigger above 0.9994, with a stop-loss placed below 0.9992, and a short bias would activate below 0.9992. Holding windows of 3–6 hours could be tested for optimal risk-reward. The strategy would benefit from higher volume confirmation and divergence filtering to avoid false signals. A rolling average of volume and price volatility could also be added to refine entry and exit signals.