Market Overview: Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price fell sharply from $1.00 to $0.66 before stabilizing in a tight range near $0.998
• Volatility surged during the early part of the day due to a flash crash-style drop
• MACD and RSI indicated bearish momentum before stabilizing into balanced territory
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming the move; turnover divergence was minimal
• Bollinger Bands widened during the crash and have since constricted, indicating range-bound expectations

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at $1.0001 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a low of $0.65 before stabilizing in a tight consolidation phase. The price closed at $0.9988 at 12:00 ET on October 11. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 1,810,839,100 USDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,799,817,700.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period displayed a severe bearish breakdown, characterized by a sharp sell-off from $1.00 to $0.66 within a 30-minute period. This was followed by a consolidation phase in a narrow range around $0.998–$0.999. A long lower shadow and multiple doji patterns in the latter half of the day indicated indecision among traders. The key support level appears to be forming at $0.998, while resistance is consolidating at $0.9992.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained below the current price range, indicating a short-term bullish reversal after the bearish breakdown. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages were all below the closing price, suggesting a potential continuation of the consolidation phase rather than a full bullish recovery.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned sharply negative during the early sell-off but has since flattened, aligning with the price consolidation. The RSI briefly dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but has since risen into the neutral range. This suggests that the bearish momentum may have exhausted itself, and traders should watch for a potential pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the flash crash, reflecting a period of high volatility. They have since narrowed, indicating a return to a lower volatility phase. The price is currently trading near the middle band, with no clear bias towards either the upper or lower bands. This suggests that the asset may remain in a range-bound state for the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp drop, with over 118 million USDT traded in the 21:45 ET candle alone. This confirms the bearish move. However, volume has since declined, indicating a reduction in selling pressure. Notional turnover also spiked during the crash, with no clear divergence from the price action. The subsequent decline in both volume and turnover suggests a possible short-term stabilization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the flash crash low ($0.66) to the immediate high ($1.00) show the price stabilizing near the 61.8% retracement level at approximately $0.96. The current consolidation near $0.998 suggests the price may be testing the 78.6% retracement level as a potential short-term target. A break above $1.00 would signal a possible bullish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior, a backtest strategy could leverage a combination of RSI divergence and moving average crossovers to detect potential reversals after sharp declines. A long signal could be triggered when RSI rises above 30 and crosses above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A short signal could be triggered when RSI drops below 70 and crosses below the 20-period moving average. Stops could be placed at key Fibonacci levels, while take-profit targets might align with the 61.8%–78.6% retracements. This strategy would aim to capture short-term mean reversion after periods of overbought or oversold conditions.