Market Overview: Ethena/BNB (ENABNB) 24-Hour Action on 2025-10-03

• Ethena/BNB (ENABNB) declined over the 24-hour period, closing near a key support level.
• A bearish momentum was evident, with RSI and MACD signaling oversold conditions and weak bullish follow-through.
• Volatility increased during the downward move, with significant volume concentrated in key breakdowns.
• Price tested and briefly bounced off the 0.0005400–0.0005450 support range, suggesting short-term demand.
• Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with recent support, indicating potential consolidation or reversal points.

The 24-hour period for Ethena/BNB (ENABNB) started with an open of 0.000585 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 0.0006069 before closing at 0.0005355 at 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025. The pair settled lower by approximately 15.9% on the day, with a total volume of 69,207.59 and a notional turnover of roughly $36.86 (based on average price and BNB value on the day). Price action showed a distinct bearish bias, with a notable breakdown below critical moving averages and a failure to retest key resistance levels.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish continuation scenario. A strong breakdown was observed from the 0.0005900–0.0005950 resistance cluster, which had held for much of the previous session. A long bearish candle formed around the 19:00–21:00 ET timeframe, indicating increased selling pressure and confirmation of the bearish trend. The price then continued to test lower levels, forming a 0.0005400–0.0005450 support range that saw limited buying interest. Doji and spinning top candles emerged near the close, hinting at possible near-term indecision, though the overall trend remains bearish.

The 15-minute moving averages (20/50) were decisively below price action, reinforcing the downward trend, while the 50/100/200 daily averages are likely even further below current levels. Momentum indicators align with this bearish setup: RSI reached oversold territory below 25, indicating potential short-term rebound risks, though the MACD showed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, suggesting continued downward momentum. Bollinger Bands revealed a moderate expansion during the breakdown phase, and the closing price rested near the lower band, further confirming weak sentiment.

Volume increased sharply during key breakdowns, particularly during the 20:00–21:00 ET window, when a large 4339.31 volume candle confirmed the breakdown below 0.0005950. Notional turnover spiked during this period, suggesting significant institutional or large-scale selling. However, volume failed to support the rally attempts later in the session, indicating waning bullish conviction. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.000585–0.0006069 swing aligned with the 0.0005400 and 0.0005700 levels, both of which were either tested or oversold during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question involves using a combination of moving averages and RSI to identify potential long or short entries. Specifically, it looks for a bullish crossover between the 50 and 100-period moving averages on the daily chart, while RSI remains above 30, signaling a potential trend reversal or consolidation into a bullish phase. Conversely, bearish entries are considered when a death cross occurs, and RSI remains below 70. Based on the current technical backdrop, such a strategy would have generated a bearish signal during the breakdown phase, confirming the ongoing downtrend. A long entry would not be supported in the immediate future unless a retest of the 0.0005400–0.0005450 level shows strong bullish confirmation and volume divergences.