Market Overview for EPICUSDT on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price declined from 0.701 to 0.676 after a large bearish candle at 17:15 ET.
• Volatility rose sharply with a 15-minute range of 0.036 at 20:30 ET.
• Volume surged to 185,143.8 at 20:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum.

The Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) pair opened at 0.701 and closed at 0.697 within the 24-hour 15-minute window, with a high of 0.701 and a low of 0.623. Total volume reached 1,403,867.6, and total turnover amounted to 930.19. A bearish trend emerged after a large 15-minute candle at 17:15 ET, which saw the price drop from 0.693 to 0.676, closing at 0.676 with a volume of 89,426.5. A sharp decline of 0.024 occurred in the next candle, signaling heightened bearish pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The 50-period MA at 0.689 crossed below the 20-period MA at 0.693, indicating a bearish crossover. The 50-period daily MA is at 0.691, slightly above the 200-period MA at 0.686, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. These moving average levels may serve as dynamic support or resistance points over the next 24 hours.

Momentum appears to be waning as the MACD histogram has been flattening, and the RSI has dipped to 45.2, indicating a potential oversold condition. However, this reading may not guarantee a reversal, as volume has remained elevated. Bollinger Bands show a widening volatility pattern, especially after the 20:30 ET candle. The price has been trading below the 20-period lower band during key declines, suggesting increased short-term selling pressure.

Volume analysis reveals a large spike of 185,143.8 at 20:30 ET, coinciding with a significant price drop. The notional turnover at that time was 121,373.7, suggesting strong bearish conviction. Subsequent volume has declined, which may indicate a period of consolidation or reduced conviction. A divergence between price and volume has yet to appear, but this remains a key metric to monitor.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high at 0.701 to the low at 0.623 show critical support at 0.665 (61.8%) and 0.677 (38.2%). Price has tested both levels multiple times over the past 24 hours. A close below 0.665 could signal a further pullback toward 0.659 or even 0.647, while a retest of 0.677 may trigger a short-term rebound. These levels will be key to assess the strength of the bearish trend in the coming hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate a potential trading strategy, a backtest could be conducted based on the identified bearish and bullish candlestick patterns observed in the data. A possible approach includes using the Bullish Engulfing pattern as an entry trigger and exiting on either a Bearish Engulfing pattern or a 5% pullback from the entry price. This method would help filter high-probability setups while managing risk through defined exit rules. Incorporating moving averages and Fibonacci levels could further refine entry and exit timing. The next step would involve retrieving the exact historical Bullish Engulfing dates or calculating them manually for the EPICUSDT pair.