Market Overview for Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT)

• Price surged from $0.76 to $0.856 driven by strong late-night buying.
• Key resistance emerged near $0.85, with bearish consolidation afterward.
• Volume spiked above $100k during the breakout but faded afterward.
• RSI and MACD showed bullish momentum early but diverged later.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the breakout, followed by a slow contraction.

Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) opened at $0.76 at 12:00 ET − 1 and surged to a high of $0.856 by midday. The 24-hour low was $0.76, with the price settling at $0.843 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 118,193.4 and turnover hit approximately $98.2 million, highlighting strong market engagement.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, EPICUSDT demonstrated a clear bullish breakout from a consolidation range between $0.76 and $0.81. The price surged above the resistance zone at $0.80–$0.81, forming a bullish flag pattern. A strong bearish engulfing pattern appeared near $0.856, signaling potential short-term exhaustion. Support levels formed at $0.78–$0.79 and $0.76–$0.77, with RSI dipping into oversold territory early on before the breakout.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50EMA crossed above the 100SMA earlier in the session, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. However, a bearish divergence emerged in the MACD as volume declined, and the price failed to make higher highs above $0.856. RSI reached overbought levels during the breakout but has since pulled back into neutral territory, suggesting the trend may stabilize.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a standard deviation of 1.2 to over 2.0. Price surged above the upper band at $0.856, indicating high volatility and potential exhaustion. As the price pulled back below the upper band, the bands began to contract slightly, hinting at a potential short-term consolidation phase.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the breakout, peaking at over 118,000 during the morning hours, confirming the move higher. However, as the price approached $0.85, volume began to taper off, suggesting diminishing buyer conviction. Turnover aligned with volume peaks, showing strong participation during the breakout but fading as the price approached key resistance levels. The divergence between price and volume suggests caution for further bullish bets.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $0.76 to $0.856, the price pulled back to the 38.2% retracement level near $0.825 and then to the 61.8% level around $0.80–$0.81. The failure to hold above $0.856 and the subsequent pullback suggest these retracement levels could serve as potential support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong breakout and subsequent divergence in momentum indicators, a backtesting hypothesis could involve using the 50EMA as a dynamic support line and entering long positions on a bullish crossover above the 20SMA. A stop-loss could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $0.80–$0.81, with a take-profit target near the upper Bollinger Band at $0.85–$0.86. This approach would test whether the breakout was genuine or a false signal, with the MACD divergence acting as a risk signal.