Market Overview for Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT)

• EPICUSDT traded in a narrow range before surging above 0.89, reaching 0.906 before consolidating.
• A large bullish candle at 04:45 ET confirmed a breakout above key resistance near 0.90, with high volume.
• Momentum stalled after 07:00 ET, with price retreating to 0.896 amid declining volume and bearish RSI divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the 04:45 ET breakout, with Bollinger Bands widening and price near the upper band.
• Downturn in the final 6 hours suggests potential consolidation or pullback ahead of the next 24-hour window.

Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) opened at 0.884 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.878 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.871–0.906, with a total volume of 395,262.6 and a notional turnover of approximately $312,467.7 (calculated as sum of volume × close price per 15-minute interval). The price action reflects a volatile but mixed 24-hour session with a failed breakout and early consolidation.

Structure & Formations

EPICUSDT exhibited a strong bullish breakout in the early morning hours, with a large 15-minute candle on 04:45 ET pushing above the key 0.90 resistance. However, subsequent price action showed bearish divergence as the asset failed to hold above 0.90 and retraced to as low as 0.871. This consolidation suggests a lack of follow-through from the breakout. A bearish engulfing pattern formed after 07:00 ET, indicating potential short-term exhaustion in bullish momentum. A key support level appears to have emerged at 0.874–0.878, with the asset bouncing off this area multiple times in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below price levels after the initial breakout, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance during the afternoon, with price failing to close above it after 08:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are in a bearish alignment, with the 50-period MA below the 200-period MA suggesting a longer-term downward trend may persist unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover at 04:45 ET, coinciding with the breakout above 0.90. However, the histogram quickly flattened and turned bearish by 07:00 ET, confirming a lack of follow-through. RSI reached overbought levels at 72 during the breakout but quickly fell into neutral to slightly oversold territory, suggesting the move may be exhausted. A bearish divergence emerged between RSI and price in the final 4 hours, which could signal a potential reversal or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively compressed throughout the day until the 04:45 ET breakout, after which the upper Bollinger Band expanded significantly. Price briefly touched the upper band before pulling back. The bands have since contracted again, with price hovering around the middle band. A narrowing of the bands may indicate an upcoming price move, but confirmation is needed. The lower band currently sits around 0.865–0.87, which may offer support if the price continues to consolidate.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 04:45 ET breakout with a 15-minute volume spike of 13,551.8, the highest of the day. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume, particularly after 07:00 ET, suggesting that the bullish momentum was not supported by sustained buying interest. Notional turnover also peaked during the breakout and has since decreased, indicating reduced conviction in the current price direction. Price and turnover appear to be moving in tandem, but the bearish divergence in the final hours raises concerns about sustainability.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.871 to 0.906, the 61.8% retracement level is at approximately 0.892, which has acted as a key resistance. The 38.2% level is at 0.888, where price has shown some hesitation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the 0.906 high to the 0.871 low is at 0.891, which may become a psychological battleground for buyers and sellers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the MACD Golden Cross that occurred at 04:45 ET and the subsequent bearish divergence in RSI and volume, a backtest using the MACD Golden Cross strategy would be relevant. The strategy would have entered a long position at 04:45 ET upon the MACD crossing into positive territory. A potential exit signal could have occurred shortly after 07:00 ET when the MACD histogram turned bearish and the RSI showed divergence. The position would have closed at a loss unless a stop-loss or take-profit rule was implemented. To refine the strategy, additional risk management rules—such as a 2% stop-loss or a 3% take-profit—could be introduced to limit downside risk while capturing the short-lived bullish momentum. A full backtest would need to be conducted over a larger historical dataset to determine its robustness.