Market Overview: Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• EPICUSDT opened at $1.881 and traded between $1.716 and $1.910 before closing at $1.843.
• Price action showed a bearish breakdown from key resistance with a long lower shadow on the 24-hour candle.
• Volume surged over 477,502 on the 00:30 ET candle amid a sharp drop to $1.716.
• RSI hit oversold territory briefly in early hours, but failed to trigger a strong rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed high volatility, with price testing the lower band multiple times during the session.

Market Context

Epic Chain/Tether (EPICUSDT) opened at $1.881 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.843 by the same time on 2025-09-23. The pair saw a high of $1.910 and a low of $1.716 during the 24-hour window, marking a bearish trend. Total trading volume amounted to 680,391.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,289,193. The price action appears to be influenced by a combination of strong bearish momentum and high volatility, particularly in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candle formed a long lower shadow, indicating rejection of lower prices but also a lack of immediate bearish conviction. Multiple bearish engulfing patterns were observed in the early hours, especially between 00:30 ET and 01:30 ET, as the pair plummeted from $1.901 to $1.849. A notable doji appeared at 00:45 ET, signaling indecision. Key support levels emerged at $1.843, $1.826, and $1.815, while resistance appears to be retesting at $1.851 and $1.863.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both moved lower during the session, suggesting a strong bearish bias. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the morning, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below both the 100- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish trend and lack of near-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the early hours and continued to trend downward throughout the session, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram showed strong bearish divergence, especially between 01:15 ET and 02:30 ET. RSI reached oversold territory around 01:30 ET at ~28, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. The indicator remained in the 30–40 range for most of the session, indicating continued bearish pressure without immediate overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early hours, reflecting heightened volatility. The price touched the lower band multiple times, especially between 00:30 ET and 03:30 ET, before bouncing back. However, the rebounds lacked strength and failed to close above the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 00:30 ET with over 477,502 units traded as the price dropped to $1.716. This was accompanied by a large notional turnover of $846,646, indicating a significant bearish event or market reaction to news. Despite the drop, volume decreased afterward, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. However, volume picked up again in the late morning and afternoon, signaling renewed interest and potential for further price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing high at $1.910 and the low at $1.716, 38.2% retracement sits at $1.826 and 61.8% at $1.851. The current price of $1.843 is approaching the 61.8% level, which may serve as a critical area to watch for support or rejection. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels around $1.837 and $1.826 also showed some price clustering, reinforcing their importance in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and strong Fibonacci levels, a potential short-term trading strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below $1.843 with a stop above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1.851. A target could be set at $1.826, aligning with the 38.2% level and a previous support area. This strategy would rely on continuation of the bearish trend and confirmation via RSI divergence or a breakdown of the Bollinger Bands lower band. The high volume and turnover at key price levels provide confidence that such a move could be sustained, though a strong reversal could invalidate the setup.