Market Overview for Enzyme/Tether (MLNUSDT): 24-Hour Downtrend and Volatility Spike

• Price dropped ~5.5% from $8.04 to $7.79 over the last 24 hours.
• A bearish breakout below key 7.90–8.00 resistance led to acceleration in late-session selling.
• RSI oversold at ~25 near 7.80 may hint at short-term stabilizing potential.
• Volume spiked during the sharp decline, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands have widened, signaling increased volatility.

24-Hour Price Action and Volatility

Enzyme/Tether (MLNUSDT) opened at $8.04 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and fell sharply to a low of $7.76 before closing at $7.79 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour range saw a high of $8.10 and a low of $7.76, with total traded volume of approximately 39,886.17 units and a notional turnover of ~$323,512. The price action shows a clear breakdown from a key psychological and prior support level of $8.00, which has now turned bearish.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $8.00 in early evening ET, confirming the reversal from a consolidation phase. Price then broke below a prior swing low at ~$7.90, forming a descending trend. A potential support level at $7.85–7.82 was recently tested but failed, suggesting further bearish momentum may persist. A doji near $7.80 in the final hours of the 24-hour period suggests short-term indecision.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with price closing well below both. The daily chart shows the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The RSI hit an oversold level near 25 in the final hours, suggesting a temporary bounce from $7.82–7.83 may be possible. MACD shows bearish divergence with price, but the histogram is narrowing, signaling possible exhaustion in the decline.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the last 24 hours, indicating rising volatility. Price has closed near the lower band at ~$7.79, a common oversold level. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the $7.76 low to the $8.10 high show the $7.90 (38.2%) and $7.85 (61.8%) levels as potential near-term targets for a countertrend bounce. The 100% Fibonacci extension is at ~$7.60 if the downtrend continues.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off in the early hours of October 4th, with a large candle forming at ~$7.85–7.82 confirming the bearish breakout. However, as price approached the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, volume declined, suggesting that the bearish momentum may be running out of steam. This divergence could support a short-term reversal.

Forward Outlook and Risk

While the bearish trend remains intact, the oversold RSI and declining volume at the lower end of the range suggest that a short-term bounce toward $7.85–7.89 is possible. However, a break below the $7.82 support could accelerate further declines. Investors should monitor the 50-period MA as a key trigger for bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position upon a confirmed break below the 50-period moving average with a stop above the nearest resistance level. A long position is triggered when RSI falls below 30 and volume decreases, signaling potential oversold rebound. This approach aims to capture both trend continuation and countertrend bounces based on the observed volatility and price action. If applied to this 24-hour period, the strategy would have entered short positions around $7.95–7.90 and exited near $7.82–7.80, capturing a 1.2%–1.5% move, with a stop-loss protecting against unexpected rebounds. The RSI and volume divergence provided a strong signal for a countertrend long near $7.79, aligning with the Fibonacci 61.8% level.