Market Overview: eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) Daily Report

• Price drifted lower by -0.38% (24h), closing below key support at 1.885e-05.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume surged in late session.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-day, signaling potential for breakouts or breakdowns.
• Key 15-min patterns: bearish engulfing at 1.89e-05, doji at 1.885e-05.

Price Action and Key Levels

The eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) pair opened at 1.879e-05 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour period, closing at 1.857e-05. The price hit a high of 1.913e-05 and a low of 1.834e-05, closing below the 1.885e-05 level, a previous support zone. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.89e-05 and a doji emerged at 1.885e-05, hinting at indecision and potential bearish momentum. Key resistance remains at 1.900e-05, with support likely at 1.860e-05.

Trend and Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, with the price consistently below both. The 50-period line at 1.892e-05 acted as a resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remained in a bearish alignment, suggesting the longer-term trend remains intact.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI dropped below 30 in the final hours of the 24-hour window, indicating oversold conditions, although a sustained bounce from this level has not yet occurred. The MACD remained in negative territory with a shrinking histogram, signaling waning bearish momentum but not a reversal.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the midday hours as the price hovered near the 1.885e-05 level, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown. In the final hours, the price dipped below the lower band at 1.835e-05, confirming heightened bearish volatility.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume was mixed, with spikes in the 22:00–02:00 ET window (UTC-5) and again in the early morning session. Notional turnover reached $29.12M (peak at 22:00 ET) but failed to confirm a meaningful bounce, indicating divergences between price and volume in the latter half of the 24-hour window.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 1.860e-05, which is currently acting as a near-term support. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 1.885e-05 failed to hold, suggesting further downside is possible.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on a mean-reversion setup triggered by a 15-minute RSI crossing below 30, followed by a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A long entry is considered when price closes above the 20-period moving average with rising volume. This aligns with the observed 15-minute RSI oversold condition and the failed 38.2% retracement level, suggesting a short-term bounce could be possible if volume confirms a retest of 1.885e-05. However, given the bearish alignment of the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, any bounce should be treated cautiously as a potential counter-trend move rather than a reversal.