Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY): Volatility and Bearish Momentum in 24 Hours

• Price action on DOLOTRY shows a volatile drop from 4.679 to 4.048, indicating strong downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest oversold conditions and bearish divergence in momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show significant contraction prior to the sharp sell-off, hinting at a breakout.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, confirming bearish pressure but lacking bullish follow-through.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate 61.8% support at ~4.20, which was tested but failed to hold.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 4.44 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 4.679 before plunging to a low of 3.996, closing at 4.048 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total trading volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 3,530,335.6 units, with notional turnover around 14,208,649.44 TRY, reflecting heightened market activity during the downturn.

Structure & Formations

Price action on DOLOTRY reveals a sharp bearish reversal from midday on October 9, with a high of 4.679 quickly giving way to a series of lower closes. A long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 19:45 ET (4.679 → 4.509) marked a key reversal, followed by a confirmation candle at 20:00 ET (4.509 → 4.486). Several doji and bearish engulfing patterns emerged in the following hours, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish side and strengthening bearish momentum. Key support levels were observed at 4.30–4.35 and 4.20–4.25, with the latter failing to hold during the final stretch of the session.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly late on October 9, reinforcing the downward trend. The daily 50/100/200 EMA system is also in a bearish alignment, with the 50 EMA currently below the 100 and 200 EMAs. MACD turned negative after 19:45 ET and remains bearish, while RSI dipped below 30 early on October 10, signaling oversold conditions. However, the price has not shown signs of rebounding, pointing to a potential breakdown below critical support levels.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the sell-off, with price hovering near the lower band during the early part of October 9. This was followed by a sharp expansion of the bands, as volatility surged in tandem with the rapid price decline. Price remained below the 2σ level for much of the session, indicating a period of high volatility and bearish dominance. The recent move below the lower band and lack of a rebound suggest continuation of the downtrend could be probable in the near term.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

The largest volume spike was recorded at 19:45 ET with 2,253,592.4 units traded, coinciding with the sharp price drop. Turnover increased in line with volume, confirming the bearish break. However, in the final hours of the 24-hour window, volume began to normalize, while price continued to fall, indicating potential divergence that may signal caution in interpreting momentum. The lack of a bullish follow-through suggests that buyers are hesitant, and further support testing may be necessary.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 4.679 (high) to 3.996 (low), the 61.8% level is at ~4.20, which was tested but failed to hold. The 50% level at ~4.34 and the 38.2% level at ~4.43 could be watched as potential resistance if a short-term bounce occurs. On the daily chart, key levels include the 50 EMA at ~4.50 and the 200 EMA at ~4.60, which could act as overhead resistance if the market reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon a bearish 15-minute candle that closes below the 50 EMA, confirmed by a follow-through candle with increased volume and RSI below 30. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Based on the current price action, this strategy would have triggered a short entry around 19:45 ET with a target at ~4.20 and a stop at ~4.60. While the 61.8% level failed to hold, this setup could be refined by incorporating a volume filter or a Bollinger Band breakout for tighter risk management.