Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY)

• Price declined from 3.296 to 3.13 over 24 hours before rebounding near 3.44.
• Strong volume expansion occurred during the late-day rebound, particularly at 15:45–16:00 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, followed by a bullish reversal on high-volume rallies.
• Volatility increased significantly during the recovery phase, as shown by Bollinger Band expansion.
• A key resistance level appears near 3.44, while support is near 3.13–3.15.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 3.26 on October 11, 12:00 ET, and reached a low of 3.012 before closing at 3.458 on October 12, 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading range was between 3.012 and 3.485, with a total traded volume of 2,024,886.2 and a turnover of approximately 6,386,101.8 TRY. Price action showed a sharp bearish breakdown followed by a strong bullish reversal.

The candlestick pattern indicates a bearish breakdown in the first half of the session, with a deep red candle forming at 19:30 ET, printing a low of 3.188 after a 19:15 high of 3.23. This marked the start of a downtrend that continued until around 00:15 ET on October 12, when the first signs of a reversal emerged. A key bullish reversal occurred around 15:00–15:45 ET, where price surged from 3.325 to 3.44. A large-volume bullish candle at 15:30 ET confirmed a reversal and tested a new high of 3.44.

The 15-minute chart shows DOLOTRY breaking above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages after the 15:00 ET rally. The 20-period MA was at 3.33, and the 50-period MA was at 3.35 at the end of the session, suggesting a shift in momentum. On the daily chart, DOLOTRY is above its 50-period and 100-period moving averages, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD lines turned positive after the reversal, confirming the shift in momentum. RSI moved from oversold territory (below 30) to over 55, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late-day rebound, with price reaching the upper band at 3.44, suggesting high volatility and a possible continuation or consolidation phase.

Price is currently sitting near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 3.012 to 3.485 swing, which acts as a key dynamic support/resistance. Notional turnover spiked during the 15:30–16:00 ET rally, confirming the breakout with strong volume. A divergence between price and RSI in the early part of the session suggested a potential reversal, which later materialized as a strong bullish move.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the 20-period moving average crossover and RSI as key signals. A long entry could be triggered when price crosses above the 20-period MA on a closing basis, supported by RSI above 50 and expanding Bollinger Bands. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous bearish move, with a target near the 3.485 high or beyond. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the current bullish trend while managing downside risk.