Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from 3.66 to 3.548, with heavy selling pressure after 20:30 ET.
• Oversold RSI conditions emerged near 3.55, but bounce lacked follow-through.
• Volatility expanded post-22:00 ET, but volume failed to confirm breakout attempts.
• Bollinger Bands show compression in the morning, then expansion as price drifted lower.
• MACD turned negative and remained bearish, with no clear Golden Cross to signal a reversal.

The Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 3.609 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 3.548 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.69 and low of 3.511 during the period. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,596,536.5, while turnover amounted to approximately 9,415,000. The price action shows a broad bearish bias, with key support levels forming around the 3.55–3.57 range and resistance in the 3.63–3.66 corridor.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal a series of bearish engulfing patterns, particularly in the afternoon session (16:00–19:00 ET). A notable doji formed near 3.59 during the evening, suggesting indecision among traders. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages appear to be aligned in a descending sequence, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the morning but no signs of a potential Golden Cross. The RSI approached oversold levels below 30 during the final hours of the session, but the rebound appears to lack conviction. Bollinger Bands reflect increased volatility during the late hours, as price traded near the lower band for most of the period before finding a temporary base in the 3.55–3.56 range. These conditions may suggest a potential short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact.

Volume and turnover spiked heavily in the afternoon (16:00–19:00 ET) and again after 20:00 ET, with several large-volume bars occurring around key price reversals. Notably, the volume spike at 20:00 ET did not confirm a breakout above 3.63 but instead led to a sharp reversal. This divergence may signal a failure of bearish conviction. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 3.69 high to the 3.511 low highlight 3.57 (38.2%) and 3.54 (61.8%) as critical levels to watch for potential short-term support or resistance. Price currently hovers near the 61.8% retracement level, which could offer a tactical entry point for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-based backtest described in the provided text outlines a rules-based short-selling strategy, where positions are opened at Death Crosses and closed at Golden Crosses. Given the recent MACD behavior in DOLOTRY — which has remained bearish with no sign of a Golden Cross — a short position would currently be open. However, the recent RSI oversold condition and consolidation near the 61.8% Fibonacci level may suggest a potential turning point. A successful Golden Cross would provide a clear exit signal, while a breakdown below 3.54 could extend the bearish trend. To refine the strategy, the use of a stop-loss near 3.60 may help manage risk. With the current bearish bias and low conviction in the bounce, the next 24 hours could see renewed pressure, though caution is advised if price stabilizes near critical support.