Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined sharply from 7.13 to 6.56 as buyers failed to defend key resistance.
• Oversold RSI and divergences hint at potential short-term bounce from 6.50–6.55.
• Volatility expanded with widening Bollinger Bands, suggesting increased uncertainty.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but has not confirmed bearish continuation.

The Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) pair opened at 7.079 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 7.13, dropped to a low of 6.395, and closed at 6.531 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. Total 24-hour volume was 21,889,630.0 and notional turnover was $153,000,000 (approximate).

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 7.13 before breaking below a key support level at 6.95. A large bearish candle at 6.747–6.775 and a morning session breakdown below 6.602 signaled strong downward momentum. A potential bullish reversal structure emerged around 6.50–6.55, with a doji forming at 6.551 and a bullish pinbar at 6.573.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart broke below the 200-period MA, suggesting a long-term bearish bias. Price remains well below all key moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the session, with the line below the signal line indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI bottomed at 28.5, signaling an oversold condition, and showed a bullish divergence with price after the 6.602 breakdown. This divergence may hint at a short-term bounce but does not confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, with price dropping below the 2σ lower band at 6.52 at 10:45 AM ET. This indicates heightened volatility and risk. Price has since remained within the bands, with the upper band hovering at 6.63–6.65 and the lower band at 6.46–6.48, suggesting a sideways bounce may be possible.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below 6.95 and again during the morning selloff to 6.602, confirming bearish momentum. However, after 6.50–6.55, volume declined despite the price bounce, hinting at weak follow-through. Turnover during the key breakdown was $10.2M, compared to $3.7M during the most recent rally, indicating stronger selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from 7.13 to 6.395 saw price testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 6.55 and the 38.2% level at 6.70. Daily retracements from the 7.079 to 6.507 swing show 6.70 as a key level and 6.58 as a potential support. Price may retest 6.70–6.75 in the near term as part of a Fibonacci-based countertrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes a long entry when price breaks above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the 50-period MA. This setup was triggered briefly at 6.903 on 03:45 ET and again at 6.91 on 04:45 ET, but both failed. A valid breakout on the 15-minute chart above 6.93–6.95 may offer a retest opportunity if RSI confirms with a bullish crossover.