Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price dropped from 5.026 to 4.358, a -13.2% move over 24 hours on 15-minute data.
• Low volume and declining turnover suggest weak conviction in the selloff.
• Key support at 4.35–4.36 appears to hold; RSI near oversold levels.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below a tight range, now near a new 24-hour low.
• No clear reversal patterns yet; momentum favors continuation lower.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 5.024 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 4.358 at 12:00 ET. The price action ranged between a high of 5.026 and a low of 4.264, reflecting significant downward bias. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,742,147.6 and notional turnover amounted to approximately 45,784,395.7 (based on volume and average price). The market appears to be consolidating in a new lower range with no immediate reversal signals.

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY has formed a bearish trend over the last 24 hours, with key support at 4.35–4.36 emerging as a critical area after multiple tests. A potential resistance cluster near 4.40–4.42 is forming as a short-term ceiling. Candlestick patterns like a long lower shadow and bearish engulfing patterns are visible near the initial break below 4.85–4.86, indicating increased bearish conviction. A potential triple bottom is forming around 4.35, suggesting a possible reversal could develop if bulls take control at this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both slope downward, confirming the bearish momentum. Price action is well below both averages, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages show a similar downward bias, suggesting the market remains in a medium-term bear phase. The 50-day MA is currently at 4.65–4.67, acting as a resistance layer above current levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative throughout the 24-hour window, with the MACD line trending lower and crossing below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has dropped to the 28–30 range, nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of volume confirmation at oversold levels indicates the bounce could be weak. A sustained move above 4.40 would be needed to see RSI normalization and a shift in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the Bollinger Bands widening as price breaks below the lower band. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and a shift in market structure. Price remains below the 20-period band, with the lower band now sitting around 4.30–4.34. A move above the middle band would be required to indicate a potential short-term reversal. The upper band is currently at 4.48–4.50, aligning with the resistance level noted earlier.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has remained relatively low throughout the downtrend, with the most significant sell-off occurring after the break of 4.70. This suggests limited institutional participation and weak conviction in the bearish move. Turnover followed the same pattern, with the most significant notional value seen between 4.40 and 4.60. Divergence between price and volume at key support levels suggests the selloff could face resistance in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 5.026 to 4.264, the 61.8% retracement level is at 4.54, which is now acting as a key psychological barrier. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are at 4.75 and 4.45 respectively. Price is currently below both, and a retest of the 4.35–4.36 support level would suggest a possible 78.6% extension target at 4.20.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and potential support at 4.35–4.36, a backtest could consider a mean-reversion strategy that buys on a retest of the 4.35–4.36 support level with a stop below 4.30. A long position would be initiated on a close above 4.40, with a target at the 50% retracement level of 4.49 and a stop at 4.35. This strategy aligns with the RSI’s oversold condition and the Fibonacci retracement levels discussed, and it would aim to capture a short-term bounce following a confirmed support test. The volume patterns observed suggest a low conviction selloff, making this an attractive risk-reward opportunity for tactical traders.