Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) as of 2025-11-11

• Price declined from $2.839 to $2.785 over the last 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded with a high of $2.96 and low of $2.73.
• Volume surged to 368,713.1, but price failed to confirm a strong directional move.
• RSI showed oversold conditions late in the session, but rebounds were weak.
• Price appears range-bound with no clear trend emerging.

The Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) pair opened at $2.839 the day prior and reached a high of $2.96 and a low of $2.73 before closing at $2.785 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period stood at 368,713.1, with notional turnover reflecting mixed price behavior and no clear conviction in either direction.

Structure and formations revealed multiple key levels. The price action formed several bearish engulfing patterns around the $2.90–$2.92 range, suggesting short-covering or profit-taking. On the downside, a notable bearish reversal appeared near the $2.80–$2.78 level, with a long lower shadow indicating rejection at that support. A potential support area appears to be forming between $2.78 and $2.75, while the $2.90–$2.92 range could act as a key resistance zone in the near term.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below key price levels during the late evening, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA continues to trade below the 200-period SMA, maintaining a bearish bias. However, the price briefly crossed above the 50-period SMA during intraday swings, hinting at possible short-term bounces if bullish volume re-enters the market.

The RSI indicator showed a rapid move into oversold territory at the end of the session, dipping below 30, which may indicate a potential short-term rebound. However, the rebound was weak and failed to hold above key psychological levels like $2.85. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram shrinking slightly toward the end, signaling a possible slowing of bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands were wide, reflecting the recent price swings. Price is currently sitting near the lower band, suggesting continued pressure on the downside.

Volume and turnover data revealed a surge in activity during the late night into early morning hours as the price hit $2.96, but volume dropped sharply during the subsequent pullback. This divergence suggests weak follow-through and a lack of conviction in the upward move. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a peak around $2.95 and a sharp decline during the downward leg. This may point to profit-taking or short-term speculative activity rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the $2.73 low to $2.96 high showed key levels at 38.2% (~$2.85) and 61.8% (~$2.81). The price tested the 61.8% level during the close and appeared to find some short-term support there. If the price continues downward, the next Fibonacci level to watch is $2.78, which may be a critical point for buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-Oversold 3-Day Holding strategy backtest results indicate that this approach has not been effective in capturing reliable rebounds in DOLOTRY. With a total return of -25.9% and an average trade return of -4.96%, the strategy underperformed significantly, with losses dominating over gains. The high frequency of losing trades and a negative Sharpe ratio (-1.99) suggest that the 3-day window is too short for this market, where price corrections do not consistently follow standard RSI signals. The worst 3-day loss of -26.53% occurred during a sharp downturn that the strategy failed to avoid, highlighting a lack of risk control.

The backtest highlights the importance of refining entry criteria—such as incorporating additional filters (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, RSI divergence, or volume confirmation) or extending the holding period to allow for more meaningful price recoveries. Without such improvements, the strategy remains prone to false signals and large drawdowns. Traders may benefit from implementing a trailing stop-loss or integrating a broader technical analysis framework to filter out low-probability trade setups.