Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – 2025-10-06

• • •
• Price surged 30.5% in the last 24 hours, closing at 4.911 TRY after forming a bullish continuation pattern post-dip.
• Volume spiked to 2.49M TRY in a single 15-minute candle, suggesting strong institutional or algorithmic buying pressure.
• RSI reached overbought territory at 78, indicating potential pullback risk, though momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, highlighting increased volatility and trend confirmation.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the consolidation phase, signaling a possible short-term reversal.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 4.662 TRY on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of 5.128 TRY. The pair closed at 4.911 TRY at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06 after a strong bullish breakout. Total 24-hour volume reached 20.52M TRY, with a notional turnover of ~$3.5M, based on the Turkish Lira rate, reflecting heightened trading activity and trend-following behavior.

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY exhibited a bullish continuation pattern with a decisive break above a key resistance zone that formed between 4.896 and 5.092 TRY. The price structure resembles a “bullish flag” within the 4.662–5.128 range, suggesting trend continuation unless a bearish engulfing candle develops near 5.082–5.11 TRY. A bearish doji appeared briefly at the 4.864–4.859 level, which may indicate a short-term pullback or consolidation. The 15-minute chart displayed a strong 20-period EMA crossover over the 50-period EMA, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

The 15-minute 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA early in the morning, forming a golden cross that aligned with the upward price movement. MACD showed a sharp bullish divergence, with a histogram peak at 5.092 TRY and a corresponding volume spike. RSI reached 78 midday, indicating overbought conditions, yet the price remained above key moving averages. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sat at 4.67 TRY, while the 200-period SMA was at 4.50 TRY, showing the 24-hour rally was well above both key long-term reference points.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the rally, with the upper band reaching 5.13 TRY and the lower band tightening around 4.85–4.86 TRY. Price remained within the bands for most of the day, but the 5.092 TRY spike briefly exceeded the upper band. This expansion of the bands indicates heightened volatility and trend strength. The 15-minute chart displayed a period of contraction in the early morning before the breakout, suggesting a potential reversal or breakout pattern was in the works.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 4.85 to 5.092 TRY, key levels at 38.2% (~4.965 TRY) and 61.8% (~4.916 TRY) were tested and held. The 24-hour rally from 4.662 to 5.092 TRY also aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 4.915 TRY, which the price closed near. This alignment increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback or sideways consolidation before a new leg higher.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 15-minute candle ending at 11:45 ET (2025-10-06), reaching 2.49M TRY, coinciding with the price surging from 4.896 to 5.082 TRY. This suggests strong buying pressure and possibly algorithmic or institutional participation. Notional turnover closely followed the price action, showing no divergence between volume and price. However, a smaller volume bar followed the 5.082 spike, indicating potential exhaustion at the top of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute EMA crossover, RSI divergence, and Fibonacci alignment, a viable backtesting strategy would involve entering long on a golden cross (20/50 EMA) at the close of a bullish candle with volume above the 24-hour average. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 4.85–4.86 TRY consolidation level, with a target aligned with the 5.092 TRY breakout level. This strategy would aim to capture trend-following gains while managing risk on potential pullbacks.