Market Overview for Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) – 2025-09-23

• Price opened at $5.142 and closed at $5.043, declining from a high of $5.338 to a low of $5.019.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after reaching $5.338, followed by a sharp reversal into oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, but volume diverged during the decline, signaling potential weakness.
• RSI hit 10 during the selloff, while Bollinger Bands showed contraction before the breakout.
• Fibonacci 61.8% at $5.18 acted as temporary support but failed to halt the downward momentum.

Overview and Key Data

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at $5.142 on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and closed at $5.043 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $5.338 and a low of $5.019 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 3,625,098.0 with a notional turnover of $18,888,228.9 (based on average price). Price action was bearish, marked by a late-night rally and a morning sell-off, ending near session lows.

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY formed a key bearish engulfing pattern near the $5.338 high, followed by a rapid retest of prior support levels. A doji formed around $5.19 as momentum waned, while the price failed to hold above the $5.20 psychological level. Key support levels include $5.18 (61.8% Fib), $5.13, and $5.08, while resistance appears to be at $5.25 and $5.30.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line (death cross), confirming bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are aligned bearishly, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term ceiling. Price remains below all major MAs, suggesting continued short-term weakness.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the morning sell-off, with bearish divergence evident. RSI reached oversold levels (~10) by the session close, indicating potential for a near-term rebound. However, the depth and speed of the sell-off may suggest exhaustion rather than reversal. Divergence between price and RSI during the morning decline also signals weakening bearish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late-night rally as price broke out of a contraction phase. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band (~$5.043), a signal often seen ahead of bounces. However, the failure to break above the upper band during the rally suggests limited upside capacity in the immediate term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night rally (~$5.338) with a turnover of ~$1.2M. However, as price declined toward the session low, volume dropped despite a sharp price move, indicating lack of conviction in the bearish move. A volume divergence appears at the end of the session, with falling prices on decreasing turnover, a classic sign of exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5.18 held briefly but failed to offer sustainable support. A retest of the 38.2% level at $5.25 could offer a near-term ceiling in case of a bounce. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% level is forming near $5.00, which could be the next critical support if the selloff continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could be to enter a short position on a confirmed break below $5.18 with a stop just above $5.25 and target $5.04–$5.00, using RSI divergence and volume contraction as confirmation. A long position could be triggered on a rebound above $5.25 with a stop below $5.18, aiming for $5.30–$5.33. This approach integrates key Fib levels, Bollinger Bands, and RSI over/under extension to filter entries with high-probability setups.