Market Overview: dogwifhat/Tether (WIFUSDT) – October 11, 2025

• Price action showed a major reversal after a 60% drop in 15 minutes, followed by a slow recovery.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest weakening bear momentum but no strong overbought conditions.
• Volume spiked sharply at the bottom of the selloff but has since declined, suggesting fading conviction.
• Price appears to be consolidating above a key 0.48–0.49 Fibonacci level and 38.2% retracement.
• Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating heightened volatility during the sell-off.

24-Hour Summary

dogwifhat/Tether (WIFUSDT) opened at $0.688 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.694 before plummeting to a 24-hour low of $0.520. By 12:00 ET on October 11, it closed at $0.508. Over the past 24 hours, the total trading volume amounted to approximately 133,835,912.91, with a notional turnover of $66,931,848.50.

1. Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern from 19:30 to 21:30 ET on October 10 formed a deep bearish reversal, including a long lower wick and a sharp drop into a volatile range. This was followed by a gradual consolidation from 0.520 to 0.508 over the next several hours. A key support area appears to be forming around the 0.48–0.49 level, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.694 to 0.520 swing also aligning with this range. No strong bullish reversal patterns have emerged yet, but the price seems to have found a short-term floor in the 0.500s.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) has crossed below the 50-period moving average (SMA50), indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs are converging from above, suggesting weakening bear momentum. The 200-period SMA remains well above current price levels, indicating a longer-term bearish trend but no immediate reversal.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative at the height of the sell-off and has remained below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has since moved out of overbought territory and is hovering around the 50 level, indicating no immediate overbought conditions. However, the slow RSI recovery and lack of a clear oversold signal suggest the market remains in a consolidation phase.

4. Bollinger Bands

The price has remained within the Bollinger Bands throughout the consolidation phase, with volatility increasing during the sharp selloff. A contraction in the band width occurred just prior to the sell-off, followed by a rapid expansion. Price remains in the lower half of the bands, indicating a bearish bias but also that the move has not yet exhausted its potential.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 19:30 to 21:30 ET sell-off, reaching over 36 million in a single 15-minute interval. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume as the price moved sideways in the 0.500s. Notional turnover has remained relatively consistent but has not shown a significant increase that would signal a breakout. The volume/price divergence during the consolidation phase may indicate weakening bear conviction.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

The key retracement levels from the 0.694 high to the 0.520 low include 0.618 at ~0.581, 0.500 at ~0.607, and 0.382 at ~0.587. The price has been consolidating around the 0.48–0.49 level, which corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the recent daily swing. A breakout above 0.515–0.520 would indicate a short-term recovery, while a break below 0.480 may trigger further bearish momentum.

7. Forward Outlook & Risk Caveat

The immediate support zone around 0.480–0.490 appears to be holding, and a breakout from this range could signal a new short-term trend. However, a failure to hold above 0.480 may result in a retest of the 0.450 level. Investors should closely monitor volume and RSI behavior to confirm any reversal signals. Given the volatile nature of the asset and the recent sharp move, this market remains highly speculative and carries material downside risk in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy provided leverages a combination of RSI divergence, volume confirmation, and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential reversal points. Based on the current price structure and Fibonacci levels, a buy signal could be triggered if WIFUSDT closes above 0.515 on the 15-minute chart, with RSI showing a bullish divergence and volume confirming the move. A sell signal would be triggered if the price closes below 0.480 with a bearish RSI divergence. The strategy is likely to work best in a range-bound environment like the current consolidation phase, where clear support and resistance levels are in play.