Market Overview for dogwifhat/Tether (WIFUSDT) — 2025-10-04

• Price swung from 0.761 to 0.802, with a 24-hour close at 0.746 after a bearish reversal.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory (30), signaling potential near-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened volatility and potential trend exhaustion.
• Volume surged during the 17:15–19:30 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of 0.802, suggesting short-term weakness.

The 24-hour period for dogwifhat/Tether (WIFUSDT) saw an open of 0.780 at 12:00 ET-1, a high of 0.802, a low of 0.746, and a close of 0.746 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 35,860,299.09, with a notional turnover of $27,469,680. Price action unfolded in a sharp bearish trend, especially from 17:15 ET onwards, with a massive volume spike of 4,770,295.94 in that 15-minute window.

Structure & Formations

Price carved a distinct bearish reversal at the 0.802 high, where a large engulfing candle confirmed the breakdown. A key support level emerged around 0.765–0.770, which held during late ET hours before a final sell-off into the close. A doji formed at the 0.770 level around 03:00 ET, indicating indecision and a potential short-term reversal sign. The 0.775–0.780 zone may serve as a new pivot area for near-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.785) and 50-period MA (0.779) both intersected around 0.780, suggesting a potential mean-reversion point. The 50-period MA on the daily chart (not shown) would likely be above current levels, indicating a bearish bias. The price remains below both major moving averages, reinforcing downward pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the 17:15 ET sell-off, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, confirming bearish momentum. RSI collapsed into the 30-35 range by 15:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions and a potential bounce back toward the 0.770–0.775 zone. However, bearish divergence remains strong unless a strong bullish breakout forms above 0.785.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands stretching to 0.746–0.780 by the close. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the bearish move. A reversal above the upper band (0.785) would imply a potential re-entry of bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 17:15–19:30 ET window, confirming the breakdown of key support and the bearish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover aligned with the volume surge, reinforcing the strength of the sell-off. A divergence between volume and price action is not currently evident, suggesting the bearish trend is still intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.746–0.802 swing, the 0.775–0.780 level corresponds to the 38.2% retracement level, which may attract buyers. The 61.8% retracement at 0.760 is already in play, having acted as a floor during the final hours. A break below 0.746 would target the next 61.8% level at 0.734.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and volume divergence. A signal is triggered when RSI dips below 30 and volume spikes, indicating oversold conditions and a potential bounce. Using a 15-minute chart, the setup would target a long entry near the 0.770–0.775 range, with a stop-loss just below the 0.765 level and a profit target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.775–0.780). This aligns with the observed price action and could be used to validate the trend continuation or reversal.