Market Overview for DOGSUSDT on 2025-10-04

• Price action showed a bearish bias with a 1.4% drop in 24 hours, breaking below key support.
• Volatility spiked sharply during the early hours before stabilizing in a tight range.
• Momentum indicators turned negative, with RSI entering oversold territory by midday.
• Bollinger Bands contracted significantly overnight, suggesting low volatility before a potential breakout.
• Volume remained uneven, with a large spike preceding the price drop, indicating aggressive selling.

DOGS/Tether (DOGSUSDT) opened at $0.0001256 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0001245 on October 4 at the same time, with a high of $0.0001281 and a low of $0.0001222. Total volume was 39.8 billion DOGS, while notional turnover reached $495.7 million. Price action revealed a bearish bias with aggressive selling pressure and a breakdown below key intraday supports.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of bearish candlestick patterns, including a hanging man and a shooting star near the $0.000128 level. A key support level was breached at $0.0001262 during midday trading, with a low of $0.0001222 suggesting oversold conditions. A bullish engulfing pattern later formed near $0.0001245, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA remained above the 50-period MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA on the daily chart, signaling a potential bear market shift. Price closed below both the 50 and 100-period MAs, confirming bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after a midday sell-off, with the histogram contracting as momentum slowed. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 by 14:00 ET, indicating a potential rebound. However, MACD and RSI divergence suggested weakening momentum, with RSI failing to confirm a strong rebound despite a bullish candle forming.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated in the early hours with Bollinger Bands expanding to capture the $0.0001281 high. Price later compressed near the lower band, trading within a tight range below the 20-period MA. The low volatility environment suggested a potential breakout, particularly if the $0.0001245 level is retested.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during the morning sell-off, with a 15-minute candle at 17:15 ET showing over 1.1 billion DOGS traded at a high of $0.0001265 and a low of $0.0001233. This divergence between volume and price suggested strong bearish conviction. Turnover also spiked during the morning, confirming the strength of the sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was breached at $0.0001262, confirming the bearish trend. On the 15-minute chart, a retest of the 38.2% level at $0.0001252 showed weak buying interest, with price failing to hold above it. The daily chart's 50% retracement level at $0.0001247 acted as a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup and confirmation of key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band signals, a backtest strategy could involve shorting DOGSUSDT after a confirmed close below $0.0001245 with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.0001252. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% level of the previous bullish leg at $0.0001222. This strategy aligns with the recent overbought correction and potential continuation of the bearish trend.