Market Overview for DOGEJPY on 2025-09-20

• DOGEJPY opened at ¥39.5 and traded between ¥39.05 and ¥39.98, closing near ¥39.84 amid uneven volume.

• Key bullish momentum appeared around ¥39.50–¥39.60, followed by a sharp breakout above ¥39.75 late in the day.

• Volatility increased significantly with price bouncing near the upper Bollinger Band after 15:00 ET, indicating rising interest.

• RSI showed overbought levels in the final hours, while MACD crossed into positive territory, suggesting potential continuation.

• Volume surged during the breakout, aligning with price, though divergence hints at a possible near-term reversal.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥39.5 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at ¥39.84 by 12:00 ET, with a high of ¥39.98 and a low of ¥39.05. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 1,327,044. Total turnover was ¥43,472,577. The pair showed a bullish bias late in the session, especially after 15:00 ET, when price pushed above ¥39.75 and approached ¥39.98.

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern above ¥39.75 and confirmed the breakout with volume. A bearish divergence between RSI and price was observed during the late session, hinting at potential short-term profit-taking. The 50-period and 20-period moving averages both provided dynamic support, with the 50-period line at ¥39.50 offering a critical level to watch. A break below that could signal a resumption of downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion in the final hours, with price hovering near the upper band, indicating strong short-term volatility. The RSI climbed into overbought territory above 65 in the last hour of the session, while the MACD histogram turned positive and showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels were active in the ¥39.45–¥39.98 range, with the 61.8% retracement level at ¥39.74 showing some confluence with the breakout area. A break above ¥39.98 could target ¥40.10, while a pullback to ¥39.60–¥39.50 may see renewed support. Investors should monitor ¥39.45 as a critical level for further bearish signals.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a dual confirmation setup using the 50-period moving average and RSI overbought levels. A long entry is triggered when price closes above the 50-period MA and RSI exceeds 65, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA. This approach has historically captured bullish continuation phases in DOGEJPY. Given today’s move, the strategy would have entered a long position in the final 2–3 hours, aligning with the observed breakout and RSI overbought condition. This suggests the strategy is currently well-positioned for a bullish bias, though divergence should be monitored closely.