Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from 38.51 to 36.56 over 24 hours, forming bearish engulfing patterns.
• Volatility expanded, with volume peaking at 286,268 DOGE, but price action shows weak conviction.
• RSI entered oversold territory late, while MACD shows bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price drifted lower, indicating heightened uncertainty.
• Key support at 36.56 held briefly before a slight rebound, but no clear reversal signal emerged.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 38.30 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 39.11, and closed at 36.59 by 12:00 ET October 4. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 8,641,525 DOGE, with a notional turnover of ¥290,868,998 (calculated as sum of volume × close). The price action has shown a distinct downward bias, especially after the midday sell-off.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a bearish trend, marked by multiple lower highs and a distinct bearish engulfing pattern around the 19:45–20:00 ET timeframe. A long lower shadow at 02:45–03:00 ET suggests a failed attempt at a rebound. Notable support levels formed at 37.00 and 36.56, with the latter showing temporary resilience before a pullback. A long-legged doji at 06:30–06:45 ET indicates indecision among traders during the early rebound phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines remain in a bearish alignment, with the 200 EMA acting as a key long-term resistance. The price remains below all major moving averages, suggesting that the bearish momentum may persist unless a strong reversal develops.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has stayed below the signal line throughout most of the 24-hour window, with a bearish divergence noted after the 09:15–09:30 ET session. The RSI indicator reached oversold levels around the 15:30–15:45 ET timeframe but failed to generate a meaningful bounce, suggesting that buyers remain hesitant. The RSI remains in the 25–35 range, indicating that the market could see a pullback, though it is unlikely to reverse the bearish trend without strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly over the past 24 hours, as evidenced by the widening of the Bollinger Bands. The price has spent most of the session near the lower band, especially after the 02:45–03:00 ET timeframe, indicating bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands was observed around 07:30–07:45 ET, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before the next move. However, the price has failed to close above the middle band, which remains a key resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 03:15–03:30 ET, during a sharp drop from 37.51 to 37.25, contributing to the bulk of the downward move. Notional turnover also saw a peak during this period, confirming the bearish momentum. Divergences in volume and price were noted during the 08:30–08:45 and 10:00–10:15 ET timeframes, where volume was relatively lower despite continued price declines, suggesting weakening conviction in the bearish thesis.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 39.11 high and 36.56 low, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level sits at 37.61, which was tested but not held. The 61.8% level at 37.28 also showed limited support, with price failing to form a convincing rebound. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from a larger swing (not included in the dataset) may act as a potential support zone in the near future.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying bearish engulfing patterns or doji candles forming near key moving averages, particularly when accompanied by high volume and RSI in oversold territory. A short entry could be triggered at the close of the confirmation candle, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the pattern and a take-profit aligned with the nearest Fibonacci level. This approach would align with the observed behavior in the DOGEJPY 15-minute timeframe, where bearish signals were often followed by continued downward momentum.