Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY)

Summary
• Price formed key support at ¥27.36 and tested resistance near ¥27.94.
• Volatility surged in late trading, with volume spiking above 300k.
• RSI suggests moderate momentum, with no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion as price moved near upper band.
• Engulfing and hammer patterns signaled potential bullish reversal in late sessions.

Opening at ¥27.36 at 12:00 ET–1, Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) surged to ¥28.29 during the session before closing at ¥27.92 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of 2,729,014 and notional turnover of ¥74,803,420, indicating heightened participation and shifting sentiment. Price action suggests buyers regained control late in the session, with several bullish candlestick formations observed.

Structure & Formations

The price found critical support near ¥27.36, where a bullish hammer pattern formed. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern near ¥27.60 suggested buying pressure. Resistance levels emerged near ¥27.94 and ¥28.03, where price tested but failed to break decisively. A doji near ¥28.02 reflected indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. Price remains above both key moving averages, suggesting continued momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the final hours, with a bullish crossover, reinforcing momentum. The RSI stands at 58, indicating moderate strength without extreme overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that while bulls are in control, caution is warranted for further overextension.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price tested the upper Bollinger Band multiple times, reaching a high of ¥28.29. A contraction phase earlier in the session gave way to a breakout. Price now resides near the upper band, signaling strong short-term buying pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the final hours, particularly around ¥27.86 and ¥28.03, where large candles formed. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, with a notable jump above ¥7 million as price surged past ¥28.00. This suggests that large players may be entering the market, either as buyers or sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the key ¥27.36–¥28.29 swing show 61.8% at ¥27.93 and 38.2% at ¥27.85. Price closed near the 61.8% level, which could now act as a temporary resistance. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the recent ¥27.36–¥28.03 move suggest ¥27.89 as a potential support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting results for a "Hold for 24 hours" strategy using DOGEJPY closing prices from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–10 show a total return of +2.19% and an average trade P/L of +0.39%. The strategy faced a max drawdown of -10.12%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.16, indicating a relatively low-risk-adjusted return. These results align with the observed 24-hour price action, which saw strong late-day volume and momentum, potentially supporting a short-term holding approach. However, the strategy’s modest Sharpe ratio suggests it may benefit from adjustments such as incorporating stop-loss or take-profit rules, which could improve risk management and skew outcomes toward more consistent performance.