Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) — 24-Hour Update

• DOGEJPY traded lower with a bearish 24-hour close near 39.45 Yen after forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• Key support at 39.25 appears tested, while resistance remains near 39.80-40.00.
• Volume spiked at key swing highs but declined at lows, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.
• RSI near oversold territory suggests possible short-term bounce, but momentum remains weak.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, aligning with a sharp drop to 39.25 before a partial recovery.

The Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) pair opened at 39.74 Yen on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and closed at 39.45 Yen 24 hours later. The pair reached a high of 40.00 and a low of 39.25, with a total volume of 2,406,387 DOGE and a notional turnover of 92.77 million Yen. The 24-hour price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern late on 09-20 and a potential hammer at the session close, hinting at indecision in the market.

Structure and formations reveal strong resistance levels near 39.80 and 40.00, with a breakdown below 39.75 confirming bearish control. A significant bearish engulfing candle emerged at 2025-09-20 23:30, confirming a reversal from a short-term high. On the lower end, the price found a temporary floor at 39.25 on 09-21 09:30, forming a small bullish reversal candle. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 39.35 appears to have limited further downside.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest bearish momentum, with the 20-period line below the 50-period line. The 50-period line also crossed below the 100-period line on the daily chart, confirming a bearish bias. The 200-period daily MA at 39.60 acts as a key reference point—DOGEJPY has remained below it for much of the 24-hour period, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The MACD showed bearish divergence as the price made lower highs, but the indicator failed to confirm with lower lows, indicating possible momentum exhaustion. The RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30) near 39.25, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands expanded after the sharp drop to 39.25, and price action has spent much of the 24-hour period trading near the lower band, reinforcing a bearish bias.

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown at 40.00, with a massive candle at 09-21 02:15 (volume: 800k DOGE) confirming the move. However, volume has declined sharply at key support levels, raising concerns about sustainability of any rally. Notional turnover also spiked during the sell-off but has not followed price higher, signaling potential exhaustion in the bearish thesis.

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show price bouncing from the 61.8% retracement at 39.35 and the 38.2% level at 39.55. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement at 39.35 and a 38.2% level at 39.55 are key areas to watch for potential short-term support or reversal signs. These levels align with the Bollinger Bands and RSI divergence.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, particularly when price breaks below the 50-period moving average. A signal is triggered if the pattern is confirmed by a close below the pattern's low and volume increases by at least 50% compared to the previous candle. The stop-loss is placed at the high of the engulfing candle, and the target is set at 1.618 times the size of the candle’s range.

In this 24-hour window, such a signal was present at 2025-09-20 23:30 with a volume spike of 108,843 DOGE. A stop-loss would be at 39.78 and a target at 39.34, which aligns with the observed price action. While the strategy would have captured the 2025-09-21 09:30 pullback to 39.25, it may not have captured the full bearish leg due to the prolonged consolidation around 39.45-39.55. This suggests the strategy could work in volatile environments but may benefit from additional filters such as RSI divergence or divergence in volume to refine entries.