Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-10)

• DOGEJPY saw a 24-hour high of ¥38.83 and closed near ¥36.55, with a sharp pullback in the final 15 minutes.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around ¥38.83, signaling potential reversal risk.
• Volatility expanded sharply after ¥38.00, with volume spiking as price declined.
• RSI and MACD both showed bearish divergence, suggesting waning momentum.
• The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at ¥37.73 acted as a key support during intraday corrections.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥37.45 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, peaked at ¥38.83 during the session, and closed at ¥36.55 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6,334,095 units, with a notional turnover of ¥234.74 million, reflecting heightened activity during price corrections and declines.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a bearish trend, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming around ¥38.83 after a sharp rally. Key support levels emerged at ¥38.00 and ¥37.73, with the latter aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the ¥36.5–38.83 swing. A doji formed near ¥36.55, indicating indecision in the final 15 minutes, while the low of ¥36.16 marked a short-term floor. The price failed to hold above ¥38.00 for more than a few intervals, suggesting limited bullish conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period line lingered near ¥38.10–38.20, a zone where price struggled to find buyers. Daily averages (50, 100, and 200) showed DOGEJPY closing below all three, reinforcing the bearish bias from a broader timeframe perspective.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and the signal line crossed below it, with the histogram expanding in bearish territory as the price dropped below ¥38.00. The RSI declined into oversold territory, hitting a low of 25 by the end of the session, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI during the ¥38.83–36.55 drop indicated waning bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after ¥38.00, with the Bollinger Band width increasing as price dropped to ¥36.16. The closing candle at ¥36.55 was near the lower band, suggesting the market is approaching a potential short-term oversold condition. A contraction in the bands is expected if price consolidates near ¥36.50–37.20, setting up for a possible breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the ¥38.83–36.55 decline, especially in the last hour, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover also surged during this period, reflecting large-volume selling pressure. However, price and turnover began to diverge in the final 30 minutes, with lower turnover and mixed price action, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the ¥36.5–38.83 swing were ¥37.73 (38.2%), ¥37.96 (50%), and ¥38.25 (61.8%). The 38.2% level held as support twice during the session, but failed to prevent a deeper pullback. A potential bounce or rejection at ¥36.5–36.8 is likely before further downward movement, depending on volume and order flow in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at ¥38.83 and the confirmation by MACD and RSI divergence, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to sell or short on a close below ¥38.00 with a stop-loss above ¥38.55 and a target at ¥37.50. This approach aligns with the intraday structure, particularly the support at ¥37.73 and the bearish breakdown in volume and momentum. If extended, a trailing stop could be added after the price confirms a new lower swing. The strategy would benefit from filtering out noise by incorporating a time-based exit or a trailing stop based on the 15-minute 20-period moving average.

Looking ahead, DOGEJPY may test ¥36.50–36.80 as a near-term floor, with a potential rebound into ¥37.20–37.50 if oversold conditions persist. However, the broader bearish bias remains intact, and a break below ¥36.50 could accelerate the decline toward ¥35.00. Investors should monitor volume dynamics and the 38.2% retracement level for potential short-covering or bounce opportunities. As always, market conditions can shift rapidly—caution is advised.