Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price drifted lower over 24 hours, closing at 27.14 Yen after a 26.64 Yen intraday low.
• Volume surged in the early morning, then consolidated.
• Overbought RSI levels emerged briefly in the late session, suggesting potential bearish bias.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 27.14 Yen on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET − 1, reaching a high of 27.28 Yen and a low of 26.64 Yen, before closing at 27.14 Yen. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 5,704,525.0 Dogecoin, with total turnover amounting to 151,012,023 Yen. The session saw a prolonged bearish trend in the early hours, followed by a partial recovery into the later hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish bias early in the session, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around 18:15 ET. The formation, confirmed by a sharp break below the prior candle's body, signaled increased bearish pressure. Later in the session, price found support near 26.64 Yen, forming a small bullish reversal pattern that halted the decline for a time. Key support appears near 26.50–26.65 Yen, while resistance remains at 27.12–27.28 Yen. A breakdown below 26.50 would suggest further bearish potential, while a retest above 27.25 could indicate renewed bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the early morning, confirming a bearish trend. By midday, the 20-period MA started to align upward slightly, signaling potential consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is just above 27.0 Yen, suggesting that the recent pullback may represent a minor retracement within a broader bearish trend. The 200-period MA remains unchanged, indicating the long-term trend has yet to shift direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory early in the session, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 for a short period around 19:15 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to produce a strong rebound, suggesting weak conviction among buyers. This points to a potential continuation of bearish pressure in the short term. However, the RSI's rebound above 40 in the afternoon suggests some accumulation may have occurred, especially if buyers re-enter the market at lower levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated throughout the session, with the upper band reaching 27.28 Yen and the lower band touching 26.64 Yen. Price spent significant time near the lower band, especially from 18:30 to 21:00 ET. This suggests increasing bearish momentum, particularly if volume confirms the price action. The contraction in the bands at the start of the session hinted at a period of consolidation, which was quickly followed by a sharp downward breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with the largest spikes occurring between 17:45 and 20:45 ET, during which price dropped from 27.12 to 26.69 Yen. This was accompanied by a large notional turnover of 4,200,000 Yen during that time. In contrast, the afternoon saw a reduction in volume despite a moderate price rebound, indicating weak follow-through buying. This divergence raises the possibility that the recent bounce could be short-lived if bearish sentiment continues to dominate.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (27.28 to 26.64), the 61.8% retracement level is currently at 27.00 Yen, which was briefly tested in the afternoon. The 38.2% retracement level is at 26.79 Yen, a level that appears to have been used as a temporary support. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels based on the previous 20-day move highlight key resistance at 27.20–27.30 Yen, with a breakdown below 26.70 suggesting a possible test of lower retracement levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was implemented using the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern to identify short-selling opportunities. The strategy was applied to all trading days from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, with a 10% stop-loss as a conservative risk management rule. The results are available for review in the interactive performance module, which includes equity curves, drawdown profiles, and key metrics such as CAGR, Sharpe ratio, and hit ratio. The strategy's effectiveness appears to be tied closely to the strength and timing of bearish signals observed in the daily and 15-minute charts, making it relevant to the recent price action and technical patterns discussed.