Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) – 2025-10-11

• DOGEJPY declined sharply from 36.33 to 30.24, with a major breakdown below key support at 30.
• Volatility surged following a massive 15-minute candle with high volume and a 33% drop in price.
• Price stabilized near 29.0–29.5, forming a base with mixed momentum signals.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, but volume divergences raise caution.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the breakdown below 30.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 36.29 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 29.6 at the same time the following day. The 24-hour session saw a high of 41.81 and a low of 14.0, with total volume of 11,983,702 and turnover of 309,930,234 Yen. The price action included a sharp breakdown below 30, a key psychological level.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish engulfing pattern as DOGEJPY closed below 30 after a massive 15-minute candle that opened at 30.24 and closed at 28.05 on the 21:30 candle. This confirmed a breakdown in a key support area. A 1-hour consolidation near 29.0–29.5 has emerged, with a potential short-term support forming at 28.75–29.0. A doji formed near 29.36 at 05:30 ET, suggesting indecision but not yet a reversal.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish through the session, crossing below price in the early hours of October 11. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period lines were trending downward, with 200-period showing a long-term bearish bias. Price remains below all three daily moving averages, reinforcing a bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish early in the session, with the histogram diverging from price action during the 15-minute bounce from 29.0 to 29.6. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 by 03:00 ET, suggesting possible short-term rebounds. However, volume failed to confirm the bounce, weakening the signal. Momentum is mixed, and a reversal is not yet confirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the breakdown at 21:30, with price closing near the lower band. The bands have since expanded, indicating heightened uncertainty. Price remains within the bands but is hovering near the lower edge, suggesting a possible continuation of the bear trend unless a bullish reversal occurs with high volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown candle at 21:30, with over 2.8 million DOGE traded in a single 15-minute period. Notional turnover also surged, confirming the move. Subsequent volume has declined, with trading activity stabilizing near 150k–200k DOGE per 15 minutes. Price and volume appear to be in line, but divergences during the rebound to 29.6 suggest weak conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 30–36.3 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 28.3 and the 61.8% at 26.3. The price is currently testing the 38.2 level. A break below 28.3 would target 26.3 as the next level. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 36.55 to the low of 14.0 show critical support at 25.1 and 19.3.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy would be to enter short positions on a confirmed breakdown below 28.75–29.0 with a stop just above 29.5 and a target at 26.3. This is based on the bearish engulfing pattern and confirmed momentum divergence in RSI. The entry would be reinforced by volume expansion at key levels. A long position could be considered if price retests the 29.0–29.5 range with increasing volume and RSI rebounding above 50, with a stop below 28.75 and target at 30.5.