Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) as of 2025-10-09

• DOGEJPY formed a bearish reversal pattern with a high of 39.89 and a close near 37.93
• Volume spiked during the breakdown, confirming bearish momentum
• RSI entered oversold territory near 28, indicating potential for a rebound
• Bollinger Bands expanded, highlighting increased volatility
• Price closed below key Fibonacci support at 38.2% (37.68), signaling further downside risk

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 38.80 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 39.89, and closed at 37.93 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour volume amounted to 16,175,338 units, and the notional turnover was approximately ¥598,341,263 (based on volume and average close).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern over the 24-hour window, especially between 19:00 and 02:45 ET, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at 38.27 and a low at 37.84. A morning doji at 37.95 on 2025-10-09 at 08:45 ET highlighted indecision before the final bearish leg. The price found support at 37.44 and 37.37, both aligning with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the 39.24 to 37.38 swing.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirmed a bearish bias as the price closed below both by over 0.75 yen. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average sits at approximately 37.50, with the 200-day at 37.35, suggesting a potential short-term bounce to test 37.60 before resuming the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line early on 2025-10-09, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory at 28 by 07:30 ET, potentially setting up for a corrective bounce to 38.00–38.20. However, a failure to break above 38.25 would likely indicate continuation of the bear trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the 39.89 high, with the price closing near the lower band at 37.93. This contraction/extension pattern indicates a high probability of a re-test of the middle band (~38.15), which could trigger a short-term rebound or a continuation of the downward move depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown between 19:00 and 02:45 ET, especially around 23:15 ET when the price gapped down to 38.97. Turnover confirmed the price action, with strong selling pressure evident during the 37.7–37.44 leg. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the bear trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at 37.68 (38.2%) and 37.44 (61.8%) before bouncing slightly. The 78.6% level at 37.35 became a key watchpoint, with a break below it confirming a larger bearish phase. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 50% levels at 37.50 and 37.70 may offer temporary pauses before resuming the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a confirmed breakdown of the 38.25 support level, with a stop loss above the 38.40–38.50 range and a target at 37.44 and beyond. A trailing stop could be implemented once the price breaks 37.60, ensuring risk is managed while capturing the momentum. Given the RSI entering oversold territory, a conservative approach could include waiting for a re-test of 37.60 before confirming the continuation of the downtrend, using volume and order block analysis to confirm the setup.