Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) on 2025-09-24

• DOGEJPY rose 8.1% over 24 hours, breaking above 36.00 with strong volume in the final 6 hours.
• RSI surged toward overbought levels while MACD showed bullish divergence, suggesting possible momentum continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the last 12 hours, indicating growing volatility and a breakout attempt.
• Key support appears at 35.00, with resistance forming near 36.25 and a potential target at 37.34 from daily Fibonacci.
• Volume and turnover correlated with upward moves, reinforcing the bullish bias but caution is warranted on a pullback.

The Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) pair opened at 35.74 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at 36.62 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 37.34 and low of 34.29. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was approximately 10,035,445 units, and notional turnover reached ~353,557,000 Yen. A bullish breakout and sustained momentum indicate a potential continuation, though a pullback to key support levels could test short-term conviction.

Structure & Formations

DOGEJPY formed a distinct bullish engulfing pattern early in the afternoon of 09-24, confirming a reversal from the 09-23 sell-off. A key support level emerged at 35.00–35.05, where the price found buying interest multiple times over the 24-hour window. Resistance levels are forming at 36.25 and 37.34, corresponding to daily high and Fibonacci 78.6% levels. A long upper shadow in the 08:00 candle (35.78–35.51) indicated initial resistance before a renewed rally, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Moving Averages & Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the upside in the final hours of the session, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50-period MA but remains below the 100 and 200-period MAs. Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the afternoon, indicating a breakout phase. Price currently sits near the upper band, suggesting a continuation may be in play unless a reversal candle forms.

Momentum & Overbought Conditions

Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged past 70 in the final hours of the session, entering overbought territory, while MACD (12,26,9) showed a positive divergence—price made a new high but the MACD histogram did not—which could signal a continuation. The RSI is poised for a pullback if it fails to maintain above 65, though strong volume during the rally suggests bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked notably during the breakout in the late afternoon, with over 445,501 units traded in the 14:30 candle. Notional turnover increased in tandem, suggesting coordinated accumulation. A divergence is observed in the early morning hours, where volume was relatively low despite price movement, indicating a lack of conviction during that phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that 36.25 (61.8%) and 37.34 (78.6%) are critical resistance targets. A break above 37.34 could trigger a test of the 100% extension at ~38.35. On the 15-minute chart, the recent pullback to 35.05–35.10 aligns with the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting a potential floor for a bullish continuation pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a break above the 20-period MA and a closing above the 36.25 resistance level. Stop-loss placement could be below the 35.00 support, with a target at 37.34 and a second objective at 38.35. This approach would leverage the observed confluence of price patterns, momentum indicators, and Fibonacci levels to capture continuation after a breakout. Given the current setup, a trailing stop may be more appropriate if the rally continues.