Market Overview for Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) on 2025-09-23

• Price dropped to 34.93, a 24-hour low, before rebounding and closing near 35.68.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions below 30 during the early hours, hinting at a potential rebound.
• Volume surged during the bounce off the 34.93 level, supporting a short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rebound, signaling increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 35.05-35.55, suggesting possible follow-through higher.

Market Activity and Volume

The 24-hour candle for DOGEJPY opened at 35.47 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 35.68 the following day. The price reached a high of 36.0 and a low of 34.93, indicating a volatile session. Total volume amounted to approximately 14,318,239 units, while turnover (volume × average price) reached around ¥506,459,875. The price action suggests a test of support at 34.93, followed by a moderate bounce.

Structure & Formations

A key support level appears to have formed around the 34.93–35.00 range, where a strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged. This suggests a potential reversal after the sell-off. A doji candle at 34.95–35.09 signaled indecision during the early recovery phase. Resistance levels can be found at 35.6–35.7 and 35.8–35.9, where the price has stalled multiple times. A breakout above 35.95 could target 36.1–36.3.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a converging trend after the bounce, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The 50-period line is slowly crossing above the 20-period, forming a bullish "golden cross." The RSI, which dropped below 30 early in the session, has since recovered to the mid-50s, indicating a possible equilibrium phase. MACD turned positive during the morning rebound, supporting the case for continued strength.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price rebound, with the 20-period band width peaking at 0.67. The price has oscillated within the bands for the past 6 hours, with a recent touch near the lower band at 35.25–35.35, followed by a move upward. This suggests a possible continuation of the bounce, but a break below the lower band could trigger renewed bearish momentum.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 34.93–35.05 recovery phase, reaching a peak of 406,430 units. This surge in volume supports the validity of the bullish engulfing pattern. However, turnover has remained relatively flat in the past 4 hours, despite continued price movement, which may indicate weakening conviction. A divergence between volume and price could foreshadow a reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key 34.93–36.0 swing show 35.31 (38.2%) and 35.72 (61.8%) as critical thresholds. The price has tested both levels multiple times, with 35.72 acting as a short-term ceiling. A break above 35.75 could see DOGEJPY retest the 36.0 high, while a pullback below 35.31 may reignite bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could target the bullish engulfing pattern observed near the 35.05–35.55 range, combined with a golden cross in the moving averages. A long entry could be initiated on a close above 35.6, with a stop-loss placed below 35.35 and a target at 35.95. This setup would be most effective during periods of increased volatility, as seen in the Bollinger Bands expansion and RSI recovery. The strategy should be backtested over multiple 15-minute intervals and adjusted for slippage and transaction costs.