Market Overview: Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) – 2025-09-14

• Price opened at ¥43.83 and closed at ¥40.47, dropping ~8.0% over 24 hours
• Volatility spiked during the 17:15–19:00 ET session with a 4.7% single-candle decline
• RSI hit oversold territory (below 30) as volume surged to over 1.3 million DOGE
• Bollinger Bands show tightening during consolidation and expansion during sell-offs
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at ¥42.40 appears to have broken, with next target at ¥41.40

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥43.83 and closed at ¥40.47, with a 24-hour high of ¥44.43 and low of ¥40.31. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached 8.96 million DOGE, while notional turnover hit ¥371.2 million. The pair displayed sharp bearish momentum, especially between 17:15 and 20:00 ET, where price dropped from ¥44.43 to ¥41.74, driven by a spike in selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong bearish engulfing pattern at ¥44.43 to ¥43.30, followed by a series of lower highs and a potential bearish continuation flag pattern during consolidation. A key support level emerged at ¥42.40 (Fibonacci 61.8% of the ¥41.61–¥44.43 rally), which was broken during the 17:15–19:00 session. A 15-minute doji at ¥42.40 suggests hesitation and could signal a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (¥43.20) and 50-period MA (¥43.05) were both above the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at ¥43.15, 100-period MA at ¥43.70, and 200-period MA at ¥44.20 indicate that DOGEJPY is trading below all major averages, suggesting further downside potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative early in the session and remained bearish, with the histogram showing increasing bearish divergence. The RSI dropped below 30 by midday and stayed in oversold territory until the close, suggesting a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal. Both indicators continue to support the bearish narrative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 17:15–19:00 session, with the price falling below the lower Bollinger Band. The band width widened from ~0.5% to 2.3% during this time, indicating heightened selling pressure. Since then, volatility has contracted, with price consolidating near the middle band, suggesting a pause in the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.3 million DOGE during the 17:15–19:00 ET sell-off, aligning with the sharp price drop. Notional turnover surged to ¥12.3 million during this period, confirming the bearish momentum. However, after 22:00 ET, volume dropped to ~200,000 DOGE per 15-minute interval, suggesting exhaustion in the current trend and a possible near-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the ¥41.61–¥44.43 rally lies at ¥43.05, which was tested multiple times but failed to hold. The 61.8% level at ¥42.40 was broken decisively, opening the door for a test of ¥41.40 (100% extension). On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the ¥40.84–¥43.59 move is at ¥42.22, which could become a short-term floor if bears pull back.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for DOGEJPY could be built around the combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts. Specifically, a short entry could be triggered when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI confirms oversold conditions (<30), with a stop-loss above the 15-minute high of the breakout candle. A target for the short could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the next support zone. This approach aligns with the observed volatility expansion and oversold conditions on 2025-09-14, making it a plausible short-term bearish hypothesis.