Market Overview for Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT)

Summary
• DOGEUSDT fluctuated between $0.17807 and $0.18575 in 24 hours, closing at $0.17941 from $0.1781.
• RSI-14 signaled overbought conditions briefly, with mixed momentum.
• Volatility expanded midday but eased by the close, with high turnover.

Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) opened at $0.1781 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.17941 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair touched a high of $0.18575 and a low of $0.17807 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume reached 429,480,730 DOGE, translating into a turnover of approximately $77,010,728 based on the average exchange rate.

The price action displayed a clear intraday bullish reversal. A bearish breakout and consolidation below a key psychological level of $0.1800 were followed by a strong rebound. This was supported by increasing volume during the afternoon session. The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern near the session low offered a short-term bottoming signal. However, buyers failed to sustain the momentum above $0.1835, suggesting potential resistance in the near term.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish bias with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line during the early afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period line was below the 200-period line, suggesting a medium-term bearish trend. The price traded below the 50-day moving average, which could act as a key resistance.

The RSI-14 moved into overbought territory around $0.1835, peaking at 73.5, before rolling back into neutral to slightly oversold conditions. MACD crossed into positive territory in the afternoon, but the histogram flattened as the session progressed, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the bullish rebound, with the price closing near the middle band, indicating a consolidation phase.

The price was supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of a recent bearish leg from $0.18575 to $0.17807, reinforcing the significance of the $0.17940–$0.17950 range. A breakout above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands or the 38.2% retracement at $0.18150 could confirm a new bullish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtested strategy was applied to assess the potential of taking contrarian positions based on RSI-14 levels. The strategy involved buying DOGEUSDT on the first close after RSI-14 rises above 70 (overbought) and exiting five trading days later, with no early stop-loss or take-profit. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10, the strategy delivered a total return of approximately +105.6% and an annualized return of 20.8%. Despite a maximum drawdown of -43.1%, the Sharpe ratio of 0.50 indicates a relatively moderate risk-reward profile. On average, winning trades gained 18.8%, while losing trades lost 8.7%, resulting in an average trade return of +3.3%. These results suggest that the market tends to mean-revert after RSI extremes, though risk remains considerable due to deep drawdowns.

Looking ahead, traders may watch the $0.1800–$0.1805 range for potential breakouts or retests of the 50-day moving average. A sustained move above $0.18150 could attract more bullish activity, while a breakdown below $0.17800 might trigger further bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility shifts and divergence between price and indicators.