Market Overview for Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) – 24-Hour Candle Analysis

Summary

• • •
• Price opened at $0.15847 and closed at $0.16890, with a high of $0.17027 and low of $0.15693
• Momentum picked up in the afternoon, with RSI nearing overbought and MACD turning bullish
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening, suggesting heightened trader activity

Market Overview

Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) opened at $0.15847 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.16890 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The pair reached a high of $0.17027 and a low of $0.15693 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 453,405,595.0, while total notional turnover was estimated at $73.8 million.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a strong bullish reversal from a prior bearish trend. A key support level was tested and rejected at around $0.1590–0.1595, followed by a clear breakout above $0.1650 after a consolidation phase in the afternoon. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:15 ET as prices surged from $0.1645 to $0.1660. This pattern often signals a potential trend reversal and was followed by a continuation above $0.1670.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include $0.1590, $0.1580, and $0.1570, with resistance at $0.1650, $0.1670, and $0.1690. A doji formed around 14:45 ET near $0.1635, indicating indecision. The bullish engulfing pattern at 05:15 ET confirmed a strong shift in sentiment, and the price failed to retest the upper shadow, suggesting continuation of the upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bullish, with the price above both. The 50-period MA is acting as a dynamic support around $0.1625. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs are aligned in a positive trend, with DOGEUSDT trading above all three, indicating a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line around 05:00 ET, forming a bullish crossover and maintaining a positive divergence as the price rose. The RSI reached overbought territory above 65 at the close, signaling potential exhaustion, but it remains within a bullish trend context. The indicator may pull back to 55–60 before extending higher.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the morning and afternoon, with the bands widening from a contraction seen the previous evening. The price traded near the upper band in the late afternoon and evening, indicating strong buying pressure. A retest of the lower band at $0.1620–0.1630 could trigger a bounce if bulls hold the level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in two key areas: first, in the early afternoon as prices broke above $0.1640, and again in the late afternoon into the evening as prices approached $0.1690. Turnover increased alongside price action, confirming the strength of the rally. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting the bullish trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

A recent 15-minute swing from $0.15693 to $0.17027 shows key retracement levels at $0.1627 (38.2%) and $0.1663 (61.8%). The price tested the 61.8% level twice and appears to be consolidating above it. On the daily chart, the 2025-01-01 low to current high shows a 38.2% retracement at $0.1635 and 61.8% at $0.1693, which aligns with recent price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a simple “buy on bullish-engulfing and hold for three days” strategy yielded a total return of −18.5% from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-07. The strategy underperformed a buy-and-hold approach and had a negative Sharpe ratio of −0.09. Maximum drawdown reached 32.2%, and average trade performance was negative. The best single 3-day gain was 42.8%, but this was offset by frequent small losses. The results suggest that a basic engulfing signal lacks robustness in DOGEUSDT.

To improve the strategy, additional filters such as trend confirmation (e.g., price above the 50-period MA) and dynamic exits (e.g., stop-loss at 5% below entry or take-profit at 1.5× ATR) could enhance risk-adjusted returns. Given the recent bullish momentum and lack of bearish divergence, the strategy may benefit from testing such refinements on current data.