Market Overview for Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) as of 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declined from 0.17672 to 0.16886 with bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions below 30, suggesting potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day before a sharp drop.
• Volume spiked during the 15:00–16:15 ET sell-off.

The Dogecoin/Tether pair (DOGEUSDT) opened at 0.17603 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.16886 the following day at the same time. The 24-hour high was 0.17772, while the low reached 0.16835. Total volume amounted to approximately 604,931,460.0, and notional turnover came in at roughly 103.86 million USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance around 0.1770, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending channel. A doji formed during the 20:45–21:00 ET session, signaling indecision, and a bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.17603–0.17585. A strong bear trap was seen mid-day, as price retested 0.1735 before plunging to the session low.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both in a bearish alignment, with price trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MA lines were in a steep descending formation, reinforcing the bearish bias. The short-term price is now well beneath these key MA lines, suggesting continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative by mid-morning, confirming bearish momentum with a large negative histogram. RSI dipped below 30 in the mid to late afternoon session, signaling oversold conditions. However, RSI did not show a strong rebound, suggesting bearish exhaustion may not yet be in place. Momentum indicators suggest a potential bounce, but caution is warranted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was seen to contract in the early morning hours before expanding violently during the 15:00–16:15 ET sell-off. Price gapped below the lower band at 0.1735, then continued lower. The current price is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, a classic sign of potential reversal or continuation, depending on volume and other indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the mid- to late-day sell-off, with over 60 million DOGE changing hands in a 90-minute window. Turnover spiked from 2.5 million USD early in the day to over 10 million USD in the final 2-hour window. Price and volume aligned on the downside, confirming bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume was not evident, suggesting the sell-off is still supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.1751–0.1777), price hit the 61.8% retracement level at 0.1737 before breaking below it. On the daily chart, key retracement levels from the recent high of 0.1780 to the low of 0.16835 include 0.1737 (38.2%) and 0.1711 (61.8%), with the current price near the 61.8% level. A test of the 0.1711 level could trigger further short-term bearish action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI reading dipping below 30, a potential oversold bounce is in play. A backtest strategy called “RSI Oversold 3-Day Hold on DOGEUSDT” has been modeled using RSI(14) as a trigger with 30 as the oversold threshold. The strategy opens a long position at the close on the signal day and holds it for exactly 3 trading days. Performance statistics are available from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–12, with no transaction costs or slippage considered. The results provide insight into how historically RSI-based strategies might have fared in similar scenarios.