Market Overview: Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Dogecoin/Tether trades down by ~11.4% over the last 24 hours, closing near key support.
• Sharp selloff from $0.2403 to $0.19346, with heavy volume in the 7 PM–11 PM ET window.
• RSI oversold at 28, indicating potential near-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Bollinger Bands widen during the collapse, confirming heightened volatility.
• Turnover spiked during the sell-off, aligning with price movement, suggesting genuine bearish conviction.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) opened at $0.19346, trading as high as $0.24032 and as low as $0.19109 before closing at $0.19346. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 3.47 billion DOGE, with a notional turnover of approximately $695 million, reflecting intense bearish activity during the sharp selloff.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick data shows a bearish trend dominated by strong selloffs between 7 PM and 11 PM ET, with a massive bearish engulfing pattern forming after the initial consolidation. A critical support level appears to be forming near $0.192–0.193, coinciding with a prior swing low from earlier in the week. A long lower shadow on the 12:00 ET candle suggests some buying interest, but the overall bias remains bearish. The price may continue to test this support zone for a potential bounce or breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line has acted as a dynamic resistance, limiting upward attempts. On the daily chart, DOGEUSDT closed below the 50, 100, and 200 SMA, indicating a stronger bearish alignment across timeframes. The price could continue to trade in a downward channel unless a sustained reversal emerges from key support levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative throughout the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence in the histogram, confirming the strength of the selloff. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory at 28, signaling a possible short-term rebound, but without a corresponding positive shift in volume or price action, a continuation of the bearish trend is more likely. The indicator may remain range-bound until a breakout or breakdown occurs near key levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the selloff, reflecting rising volatility. The price has traded near or below the lower band for much of the session, suggesting oversold conditions. A potential bounce may occur if the price remains above the lower band, but a break below it could trigger further bearish momentum. Traders may watch for a retest of the lower band as a potential entry point for long positions, though the risk of a breakdown remains.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline from $0.23319 to $0.16726. Notional turnover rose in tandem with price, confirming bearish conviction. The divergence between volume and price in the final hours, however, suggests waning selling pressure. If volume increases with a potential reversal, it could validate a short-term bounce; otherwise, further selling may follow.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.23375 to $0.21875, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement level at $0.225 and has now fallen below it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the high of $0.24032 to the low of $0.19109 sits at ~$0.216, which may serve as a potential resistance on any upward bounce. The price may continue to trade between the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels in the near term unless a breakout occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term reversals from the key support levels identified around $0.192–0.193, particularly when RSI enters the oversold zone and volume begins to contract. Given the alignment of Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band support, a long entry could be considered with a stop-loss placed below $0.190. The MACD crossover and 20-period MA could serve as additional confirmation signals. If the price fails to hold above these levels, the next target is $0.185–0.186, where a prior swing low offers potential bearish validation.