Market Overview for Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) traded in a descending channel, with key resistance at 0.2605 and support at 0.2550.
• Momentum dipped into oversold territory on RSI (below 30), suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded early in the session but contracted after 05:00 ET, signaling consolidation.
• Notional turnover spiked during the 17:15–17:30 ET range as price dropped sharply.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2606–0.2596 before 19:30 ET, hinting at further downside bias.

Dogecoin/Tether (DOGEUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at 0.25934 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.2651 before closing at 0.2552 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a low of 0.2552 during the session, with total volume of 1,102,806,148.0 and a notional turnover of 65.0 DOGE (value in USD Tether not calculated here). Price action suggests a bearish bias amid expanding and contracting volatility.

Structure and formations indicate a key resistance cluster forming between 0.2605 and 0.2622, with support levels emerging at 0.2552–0.2560. A notable bearish engulfing candle formed at 0.2606–0.2596 around 19:30 ET, which may reinforce short-term bearish momentum. A long-legged doji appeared near 0.2591–0.2591 at 23:30 ET, suggesting indecision before the final leg down. A descending channel is in play, with the upper boundary at 0.2630 and the lower at 0.2550.

Moving averages indicate a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA after 06:00 ET. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is bearish, having crossed below the 200-period MA in prior sessions, supporting a cautious outlook. The price closed below both key moving averages in the final hours, which may indicate continued pressure until a reversal is confirmed on higher timeframes.

MACD turned bearish after 18:00 ET with a bearish crossover, confirming the momentum shift. The RSI dipped below 30 at 01:45 ET, signaling an oversold condition and a possible near-term bounce. Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction after 05:00 ET, which may precede a breakout or breakdown. Price remained near the lower band for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. Volume surged during the sharp decline between 17:15–17:30 ET, suggesting conviction in the move lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, combined with the RSI hitting oversold territory and price sitting near the lower Bollinger Band. A sell entry after the close of that candle, with a stop above the 0.2600 level and a target at 0.2550–0.2530 (aligning with the lower Bollinger Band and Fibonacci 61.8% of the prior upswing), could be evaluated. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend, leveraging the convergence of price action, momentum, and volatility signals.