Market Overview for First Digital USD/Tether (FDUSDUSDT): November 1, 2025

• Price remains range-bound near 1.0000, with a 24-hour high of 1.0009 and a low of 0.9988.
• Volatility expanded overnight, pushing the pair above 1.0, but consolidation followed during the day.
• Volume surged after midnight (ET) but declined significantly in the afternoon.
• A Bullish Engulfing pattern emerged at 00:30 ET, followed by a short-lived rally.
• RSI suggests neutral momentum, but the low-volume pullback may limit further upside.

The FDUSDUSDT pair opened at 0.999 and traded in a 24-hour range between 0.9988 and 1.0009, closing at 1.0000 at 12:00 ET. The total trading volume over the period was approximately 323,089,305.0, with a notional turnover of 1.0001. The price remained largely within a tight band around 1.0, typical of stablecoin pairs, but experienced a brief but notable surge past 1.0007 in the early hours.

Structurally, the price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 00:30 ET, where a large bullish candle followed a bearish one, suggesting potential short-term buying pressure. However, the pattern was quickly retraced, and the pair returned to the 1.0000–1.0005 range by the morning. Key support levels appear to be forming around 0.9998 and 1.0000, while resistance is seen at 1.0006 and 1.0007. The 15-minute chart shows no clear trend, but the pair spent much of the day consolidating within Bollinger Bands, with a slight contraction in volatility after 10:00 AM.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have remained relatively flat, consistent with the lack of directional momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages are also converging near 1.0000, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The MACD line remained near the signal line, suggesting weak momentum, while the RSI hovered around 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands show the price to be near the middle band, suggesting low volatility and a lack of breakout signals.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the overnight high (1.0009) and low (0.9998) show key levels at 0.9999 (38.2%) and 1.0004 (61.8%). The pair has spent much of the day oscillating around these levels, suggesting traders are watching for a potential breakout. Volume spiked overnight but declined sharply after 17:00 ET, with notional turnover following a similar pattern. The divergence between price and volume in the afternoon suggests weakening momentum and could signal a possible retest of key support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves detecting Bullish Engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart and entering a long position at the close of the engulfing candle, with an exit rule of holding for 15 minutes or until the next candle’s close. This is a classic intraday momentum strategy used in more volatile markets but poses challenges for a stablecoin pair like FDUSDUSDT, which typically shows minimal price movement. Given the backtest engine’s limitations—namely, the use of end-of-day data—we could approximate this strategy by using daily bars and executing a “buy at close, exit at next day’s close” approach. Alternatively, if the target asset is an equity (e.g., Fidus Investment, ticker FDUS.O), we can adjust the rule accordingly.

Using the data provided, we observed one valid Bullish Engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart at 00:30 ET. A backtest would need to evaluate whether this pattern was followed by a positive return within the 15-minute window. Given the low volatility and high liquidity of FDUSDUSDT, the strategy may struggle to generate meaningful returns unless paired with more volatile assets. A more robust backtest would require access to higher-frequency data or a different market with more pronounced price action.