AInvest Newsletter
Daily stocks & crypto headlines, free to your inbox


• DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) formed a bullish reversal pattern after a 24-hour consolidation.
• RSI moved from oversold to neutral territory, while volume spiked 2.5x above average.
• Price remains above 20SMA, with MACD turning positive, signaling potential near-term strength.
DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at $0.4777 (12:00 ET-1) and traded between $0.4734 and $0.4925, closing at $0.4771 (12:00 ET) after a volatile 24-hour session. Total volume reached 668,246.6, while notional turnover was $306,933. The pair appears to be forming a bullish setup amid divergent intraday swings and a key support test.
The 15-minute chart shows a notable bearish-to-bullish shift, particularly after the 02:00–05:00 ET window, when DIAUSDT rebounded from a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior downtrend. The 20SMA remains bullish as price stays above it, with the 50SMA catching support in the $0.474–0.476 range. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are converging but remain below current levels, suggesting potential for a breakout.
MACD turned positive in the final 4–6 hours, confirming a shift in momentum, while RSI moved from the 30s into the 50–55 range, signaling a potential recovery from oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands show increased volatility, particularly after 10:15 ET when a sharp upward spike pushed price beyond the +1σ band. Price now appears to be consolidating near the $0.477–0.478 psychological level, which coincides with both a 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $0.4734–$0.4925 swing.
Volume spiked significantly during the 10:15–11:45 ET window, confirming the recent bullish divergence. However, a divergence between price and volume occurred after 17:00 ET, when volume declined despite a continuation of sideways trading. This may signal weakening conviction or accumulation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest applied a basic strategy using daily-bar pattern testing, specifically the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, with a 24-hour holding period and no stop-loss/take-profit rules. Over ~4 years, it achieved a modest 36.7% total return (7.88% annualized), but with a 32.9% maximum drawdown and a low Sharpe ratio of 0.36. These results suggest a weak risk-adjusted edge. The average trade P/L was +0.44%, indicating a marginal edge that could be eroded by fees and slippage.
The analysis of recent DIAUSDT price action aligns with some of the backtest’s assumptions—specifically, the presence of potential bullish reversal patterns and a shift in momentum—though the market’s current volatility and divergence suggest caution. The strategy may benefit from filtering signals with volume or trend confirmation, especially on 15-minute charts, and implementing dynamic exits to improve risk management.
Decoding market patterns and unlocking profitable trading strategies in the crypto space

Dec.04 2025

Dec.04 2025
Dec.04 2025

Nov.14 2025

Nov.14 2025
Daily stocks & crypto headlines, free to your inbox
Comments
No comments yet