Market Overview: DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) – 2025-11-01 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from a high of $0.5281 to close near $0.5211, indicating bearish momentum and a failed breakout attempt.
• Volatility spiked during the night session, with a sharp drop from $0.5826 to below $0.52.
• A large bullish reversal pattern formed near $0.5175, suggesting possible near-term support.
• RSI showed oversold conditions for a portion of the day, though buying pressure failed to sustain recovery.
• Volume spiked during the sharp decline, confirming bearish conviction in the move.

Price Structure & Candlestick Formations

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at $0.5211 on 2025-11-01, reaching a high of $0.5281 before collapsing to a 24-hour low of $0.5051. The session closed at $0.5211, down slightly from the open. The 24-hour candlestick structure showed a bearish continuation, with a large bearish body and long upper and lower shadows, indicating indecision. A bullish reversal pattern emerged near the $0.5175 level in the early hours of the session, which could serve as a short-term support. The formation suggests a potential bounce if buying pressure re-enters the market.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price after the sharp decline, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA currently sits at ~$0.52, while the 20-period MA has dipped closer to the price level. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs are still above the price, suggesting that the downtrend remains intact. RSI moved into the oversold territory during the decline but failed to trigger a strong rebound, hinting that buyers are cautious.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged during the 3 AM to 5 AM ET period, with price dropping nearly $0.05 in a short span. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during this time, with price reaching the lower band at $0.5051 before moving back toward the midline. The bands have since begun to contract, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Price is currently trading near the midline, which may indicate a neutral bias in the short term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.93 million contracts, with the largest spike occurring at 3:00 AM ET when volume reached 1.696 million. Turnover was particularly high during the bearish move, confirming the strength of the selling pressure. However, the lack of follow-through buying after the rally to $0.5281 indicates weak conviction in the bullish side. Price and volume appear to be diverging slightly, with price reaching new highs but without a corresponding volume increase.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Using the recent swing high of $0.5281 and the swing low of $0.5051 as reference points, Fibonacci retracements show 23.6% at $0.5220, 38.2% at $0.5182, and 61.8% at $0.5144. The 38.2% retracement level closely aligns with the bullish reversal pattern observed near $0.5175, which may act as a key support. If price continues to fall, the 61.8% level offers a likely next target, with a breakdown below it indicating a potential test of $0.5019.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the reliability of the bullish reversal pattern observed near $0.5175, a backtest using a "Bullish Engulfing" strategy could be applied to historical DIAUSDT data. The pattern would trigger a buy signal at the open of the following candle, with a 5-day holding period. Given the recent price action and the volume confirmation, this strategy could help assess the predictive value of the pattern in similar conditions. However, due to data unavailability for this strategy, an in-house scanner would be required to identify past occurrences of the pattern for backtesting.