Market Overview for DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) – 2025-10-31

• DIAUSDT broke below key support at $0.52, with a 24-hour low of $0.506 and a close near $0.519.
• Volatility expanded as the price swung ~5% within a 12-hour window, with Bollinger bands widening.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30 for 2–3 hours, suggesting short-term bounce potential.
• On-chain volume surged over $170k at 20:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp selloff to $0.5097.
• A bullish hammer formed at $0.506–$0.508, with a 3% rebound in the following 90 minutes.

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at $0.5288 on 2025-10-30 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.5192 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.5341 and a low of $0.5053. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,662,462.1, and total turnover reached $835,363. The pair exhibited a volatile 15-minute swing range, with sharp corrections and rebounds visible after key support and resistance levels were tested.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish breakdown from $0.5302 support into $0.5097, followed by a moderate rebound. Key resistances include $0.5278–$0.5309 and $0.5304–$0.5341, while strong support appears at $0.506–$0.5097, marked by a hammer pattern. A doji formed around $0.5105, indicating indecision at the lower end of the range. The price has yet to reclaim $0.525–$0.5278, a previous consolidation zone, which may act as a pivot for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50 SMA) for the 15-minute chart crossed below price levels multiple times during the selloff, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA sits near $0.5315, slightly above the 100 SMA at $0.5290, while the 200 SMA remains in overbought territory, suggesting a potential correction is still in play. The price is currently well below both the 50 and 100 SMA, hinting at a continuation of the bearish bias if the $0.506–$0.5097 support fails.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 for an extended period after 18:45 ET and remained in oversold territory for over three hours, with a slight rebound suggesting a potential near-term reversal. MACD lines turned bearish after 16:00 ET, confirming the downward momentum. A histogram divergence appears between the RSI and price after 00:00 ET, indicating weakening bearish pressure. Traders may look for a MACD crossover to the bullish side as a potential buy signal if the price retests $0.519–$0.521.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff from $0.5302 to $0.5097, reaching a width of ~0.014 (270 bps). The price traded near the lower band for several hours, reinforcing the oversold condition. A reversion to the middle band is now in play, and the volatility contraction since 04:30 ET may signal a period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over $170k at 20:00 ET when the price broke below $0.5128 and continued to fall to $0.5097. The subsequent rebound to $0.5204 came with moderate volume (~$80k), suggesting a lack of conviction. A divergence between volume and price is visible in the latter half of the 24-hour period, where volume declined despite a rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing from $0.5302 to $0.5097 show 61.8% at $0.5153 and 78.6% at $0.5181, both of which the price has tested. A retest of the 50% level at $0.5199 could signal a bullish reversal if volume increases and RSI remains above 30.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish breakdown and RSI hitting oversold levels, the RSI-based swing strategy described in the backtest could be relevant for positioning a potential short-term rebound. The strategy, which historically outperformed the Dow with a 12.2% annualized return and favorable risk-reward asymmetry (avg. 3% gain vs. 1.2% loss), may offer a structured approach to capturing a bounce from current support levels. However, the price has not yet shown a clear pullback to overbought territory, so applying a trend filter or time-based stop might help mitigate the risk of missing momentum moves. The current setup suggests a short-term trade around $0.518–$0.521 with a stop near $0.506 could align well with the strategy’s risk parameters.