Market Overview for DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) – 2025-10-07

• DIA/Tether declined by ~4.5% over 24 hours, hitting a 24-hour low of $0.5405.
• Volume surged to $495.9k, suggesting increased participation but mixed price action.
• Price tested key support levels, forming bearish engulfing and harami patterns.
• RSI dropped below 30, signaling oversold conditions; MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded as price drifted below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart.

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at $0.5735 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $0.5446 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of $0.5823 and a low of $0.5405. Total trading volume reached 381,282.5, with a notional turnover of $214,992. The price moved in a bearish trend, marked by a breakdown below key moving averages and bearish candlestick formations.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below the 0.5735–0.5761 consolidation range, forming bearish engulfing and harami patterns near key support levels. A doji appeared at 0.5745, signaling indecision. Resistance at 0.5768 and support at 0.5693 were tested multiple times, but the bearish bias held.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period MAs, reinforcing the downward trend. Daily data showed a similar breakdown below the 50- and 100-period MAs, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term bearish benchmark at 0.5785.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line with a bearish crossover, aligning with the price action. RSI dropped below 30 for most of the session, indicating oversold conditions. However, divergence appeared as RSI bottomed before price, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be followed by renewed bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved from the upper band to the lower band. The most recent 15-minute candle closed near the lower band at 0.5446, indicating a possible short-term overextension. Contraction phases were visible in the mid-session, but expansion followed, reflecting increased selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the decline from 0.5823 to 0.5495, particularly in the 14:45–15:00 ET window, when 31554.3 volume was recorded. However, price and volume diverged in the 15:30–16:00 ET window, where turnover slowed despite continued downward movement, hinting at weakening conviction in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.5405–0.5823 swing, key retracement levels at 0.5625 (38.2%), 0.5546 (61.8%), and 0.5467 (78.6%) were tested. The 0.5448 level coincided with the 78.6% retracement and served as a temporary floor before further selling pressure emerged.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering a short position when the RSI falls below 30 and price breaks below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level (0.5488), with a target at 0.5350, the next Fibonacci extension level. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while managing risk with tight stops. Given the current bearish bias and oversold conditions, such a strategy may offer favorable risk-reward in the near term.