Market Overview for DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) fell 12% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and diverging volume.
• Key resistance at 0.6015, support at 0.5747, with bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns.
• Volatility expanded early before contracting, with RSI in oversold territory.
• Turnover spiked in early hours but diverged with price decline; volume confirmed bearish action in final hours.

Market Snapshot

DIA/Tether (DIAUSDT) opened at 0.5958 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.5595 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded as high as 0.607 and as low as 0.5588 over the 24-hour window. Total trading volume was 584,974.8 and total notional turnover was approximately 324,576.1 (in USD terms).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a series of bearish formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern during the early hours of the session and a hanging man near 0.5995. These patterns suggest increasing bearish sentiment. Notable support levels emerged at 0.5747 and 0.5641, while resistance levels can be identified at 0.5995 and 0.6015. A potential reversal may occur near the 0.5603–0.5613 range, where bullish signals could emerge if volume increases.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 20-period MA currently sits at 0.5935, and the 50-period MA at 0.5894, with price trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are aligned in a downtrend, suggesting a continuation of bearish bias in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a long-bias trade entry at 0.5641 if the price closes above the 50-period MA and RSI rises above 30, with a stop-loss at 0.5595 and a target at 0.5762. A short-bias trade may be triggered on a close below 0.5704, with a stop-loss at 0.5747 and a target at 0.5603. This setup aims to capitalize on momentum divergence and volume action observed in the 0.5641–0.5747 range.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence, signaling potential for further downside. RSI dipped below 30 in the last 6 hours, suggesting oversold conditions. However, RSI has not shown a convincing bullish divergence to support a reversal. A sustained close above 0.5641 could lift RSI above 30 and trigger a short-term bullish bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price action displayed volatility expansion early in the session before contracting into a narrower range. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands currently have a width of approximately 0.0036. Price is trading near the lower band at 0.5641, indicating potential for a retest of key support. A break below 0.5595 could signal further volatility expansion and a move toward 0.5588.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early session (between 18:00 and 19:15 ET on 2025-10-03) but diverged with the price decline, suggesting weakening bullish conviction. Conversely, volume increased in the final hours of the session, confirming bearish continuation. Notional turnover also saw a sharp spike during the early price decline, but it has since decreased, signaling reduced liquidity and potential consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent 0.607–0.5595 swing aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.5747 (38.2%) and 0.5641 (61.8%). The 61.8% level appears to be a critical support zone, where a bounce or consolidation may occur. A break below this level would invalidate the near-term bullish case and suggest a test of the 0.5588 psychological level.

Outlook and Risk

Looking ahead, the 24-hour period may see continued bearish pressure if the 0.5641–0.5704 range fails to hold. A potential test of 0.5588 could emerge if short-term bearish momentum continues. Investors should closely monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential reversal. Key risks include sudden liquidity shifts or unexpected macro events that could trigger a wider market selloff.